14429 American Kestrel Dr

Bee Cave, TX 78738

$700,000D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,381 sqft · Built 2006 · SingleFamily · Active · 59 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,479/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,671
• Tax + insurance: −$1,256
• HOA: −$46
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,150
• Net cashflow: $-645/mo
• Annual: $-7,741/yr
• Cap rate: 5.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.95%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $196,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $700k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-645 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $586k (16.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $548k (21.7% below list).
• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($679k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $548k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#369 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lake Travis ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #39 of 826 in TX (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lakeway El (math 62% / reading 67%, grade B, #257 of 4,322 statewide, top 6%, 564 students, 7% FRL); Hudson Bend Middle (math 57% / reading 52%, grade B-, #256 of 1,662 statewide, top 16%, 900 students, 0% FRL); Lake Travis H S (math 54% / reading 75%, grade B-, #199 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 3,701 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 506 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $64k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 1.9% in Bee Cave — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($183k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.