14429 American Kestrel Dr · Bee Cave, TX 78738

$700,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,381 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 59 Days on market

Built 2006 6,324 sqft lot $207/sqft · 16% below area Est $830k · 16% under $46/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New construction in Falconhead: Archer plan with stainless steel appliances and undermount kitchen sink! AGENTS: Key at builder's sales office. FEMA - Unknown Restrictions: Yes

Key facts

• Expansive game room
• Open-concept kitchen
• Private backyard

Tags

• MAIN-LEVEL PRIMARY SUITE
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• COVERED BACK PATIO
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• DEDICATED OFFICE
• EXPANSIVE GAME ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (Spillman Ranch HOA); Quarterly HOA fee of $137.50 covering common area maintenance; Community amenities include golf, playground, sidewalks, and trails/paths

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with single door and garage door opener; Two garage spaces (covered); Total of four parking spaces
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Propane available; Public sewer; Public water; Underground utilities
• Home design: Two-story residence; Resale property; Slab foundation
• Construction: Built per public records; Masonry and stucco construction; Tile roof
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Covered patio; Wrought iron fencing; Level lot; Automatic in-ground sprinklers; Property has a view; Faces northwest

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing range; Gas range; Oven; Exhaust fan; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Separate/formal dining room; Entrance foyer; High ceilings; Interior steps; Multiple living areas; Multiple dining areas; Main level primary bedroom; Pantry; Study; Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry room; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $700k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-645 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $586k (16.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $548k (21.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $548k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 1.9% in Bee Cave — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#369 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lake Travis ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #39 of 826 in TX (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lakeway El (math 62% / reading 67%, grade B, #257 of 4,322 statewide, top 6%, 564 students, 7% FRL); Hudson Bend Middle (math 57% / reading 52%, grade B-, #256 of 1,662 statewide, top 16%, 900 students, 0% FRL); Lake Travis H S (math 54% / reading 75%, grade B-, #199 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 3,701 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 506 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($183k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($679k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $64k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $547,854 (21.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.95%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $829,967
• List price: $700,000
• Delta: -15.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14408 Broadwinged Hawk Dr	0.25mi	4/3.5	3,271 (-3%)	12mo	$775,000	$237	71
14324 Broadwinged Hawk Dr	0.27mi	4/2.5	3,092 (-8%)	1mo	$750,000	$243	70
3909 Sugarloaf Dr	0.28mi	3/3.0 (-1)	3,457 (+2%)	12mo	$1,349,500	$390	69
4105 Gandara Bnd	0.44mi	4/4.0	3,381 (0%)	11mo	$875,000	$259	66
16108 Spillman Ranch Loop	0.49mi	4/3.5	3,365 (-0%)	13mo	$1,090,000	$324	63
3916 Sugarloaf Dr	0.29mi	3/3.5 (-1)	3,659 (+8%)	12mo	$1,537,000	$420	56
4609 Gallego Cir	0.46mi	4/3.5	3,773 (+12%)	4mo	$1,200,000	$318	54
14912 Swallow Tailed Kite Dr	0.51mi	4/3.0	3,081 (-9%)	10mo	$919,999	$299	53
14913 Spillman Ranch Loop	0.58mi	3/3.5 (-1)	3,634 (+8%)	3mo	$1,095,000	$301	51
15021 Spillman Ranch Loop	0.68mi	4/3.5	3,699 (+9%)	2mo	$1,224,500	$331	49
15104 Spillman Ranch Loop	0.72mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,673 (+9%)	0mo	$999,999	$272	45
15512 Spillman Ranch Loop	0.75mi	4/3.5	3,682 (+9%)	13mo	$950,000	$258	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-170,406
• Equity at exit: $104,372

10-year hold

• IRR: -38.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.34×
• Total profit: $-262,665
• Equity at exit: $60,523

Cash invested: $196,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78738

• Home prices YoY: -5.5%
• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 506
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,479 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,671
• Tax from tax record: −$965 /mo · $11,575/yr
• Insurance: −$292
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,150
• Net cashflow: $-645

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,295

Max offer price $586,042

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-249	-5% $-447	+0% $-645	+5% $-843	+10% $-1,041
Rent	-10% $-1,078	-5% $-861	+0% $-645	+5% $-429	+10% $-212
Rate	-1.0pp $-293	-0.5pp $-467	base $-645	+0.5pp $-826	+1.0pp $-1,011

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $175,000
• Closing costs: $21,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3801 Peak Lookout Dr Austin, TX	5.0	5.0	4521	$9,900	$2.19	23d	1	0.66mi
309 Aria Dr Austin, TX	4.0	3.5	3260	$5,000	$1.53	26d	1	0.95mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $46 · $552/yr

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $700,000 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $700,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $700,000 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $700,000 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $700,000 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $700,000 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $700,000 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $700,000 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $700,000 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $700,000 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $700,000 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $700,000 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $700,000 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $700,000 Active 38 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    price $744,000 1731-char remark
17. 2026-04-23
    listed $764,500 Active 1731-char remark
18. 2017-05-09
    soldstatus
19. 2012-04-27
    historical Temporarily Off Market
20. 2012-02-01
    listed Active
21. 2007-05-01
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (176 chars)

    New construction in Falconhead: Archer plan with stainless steel appliances and undermount kitchen sink! AGENTS: Key at builder's sales office. FEMA - Unknown Restrictions: Yes

22. 2007-03-13
    listed $388,198

    Show marketing remark (176 chars)

    New construction in Falconhead: Archer plan with stainless steel appliances and undermount kitchen sink! AGENTS: Key at builder's sales office. FEMA - Unknown Restrictions: Yes

23. 2007-03-07
    historical
24. 2006-09-26
    listed

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $11,575 · $965/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $12,810 · $1,068/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,235/yr (+$103/mo · 10.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $65,742
• − Mortgage interest: −$39,211
• − Property taxes: −$11,575
• − Insurance: −$3,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,259
• − Management: −$5,259
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$20,364
• Taxable loss: −$19,978
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,795
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,946/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Travis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826470
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $101,194
• Composite: 55.13/100
• National rank: #1283
• State rank: #39 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bee Cave

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #369
• US rank: #7827

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bee Cave, TX
• County: Travis County · 1,299,254 people
• City population: 28,790
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,019
• Household income: $183,048
• Rent vs Own: 24.7% rent · 75.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 611.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Asian 14% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 10% Romanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 6% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -30.28%
• Current HPI: 518.22
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.22%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+80.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $700,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $744,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $764,500 Unlock MLS
• 2017-05-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-04-27 Delisted — Unlock MLS
• 2012-02-01 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2007-05-01 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2007-03-13 Listed $388,198 Unlock MLS
• 2007-03-07 Delisted — Unlock MLS
• 2006-09-26 Listed — Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $11,575 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.