805 Lloyds Rd

Little Elm, TX 75068

$159,000B-

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,277 sqft · Built 1987 · Manufactured · Active · 215 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,946/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax + insurance: −$141
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$619
• Net cashflow: $1,352/mo
• Annual: $16,225/yr
• Cap rate: 16.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.45%
• DSCR: 2.62
• 1% rule: 1.85%
• Cash to close: $44,520

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $159k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $159k).
• It's been on market 215 days — a 12% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $140k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#790 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Denton ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #383 of 826 in TX (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 1320 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $291k (65%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $159k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 16.5% vs local median 3.0% in Little Elm — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 215 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.