805 Lloyds Rd · Little Elm, TX 75068

$159,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,277 sqft · Manufactured public records · 215 Days on market

Built 1987 0.30 ac lot $70/sqft · 67% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tear Down New Construction -Build your dream home! Builders, See ProForma in Transaction Documents, No zoning restrictions bring your boots and your blueprint dreams — A rare double-lot redevelopment gem in booming Little Elm, offered as a tear-down only and ready for your next profitable build. Reach out to the City of Oak Point Planning Department. MLS #21173079 is owned by the same seller and may be purchased separately or together with LAND Listing not Residential MLS#:21115111 Just minutes from Lake Lewisville and positioned near active new-construction communities by Risland Homes, Lennar, and Bloomfield Homes, this property sits in the center of Little Elm’s next wave of growth. Land is tightening. Demand is climbing. And this double-lot layout puts you ahead of the curve. Why This Property Wins for Builders & Investors: Two full lots included — ideal for a custom build, multi-gen concept, or potential replat (buyer to verify) No HOA — creativity unlocked; design without heavy restrictions Utilities on site Minutes to growing retail, dining, and major access roads Strong new-build comps nearby supporting resale value

Key facts

• Utilities on site
• No hoa
• 0.3 acre lot

Tags

• DOUBLE-LOT REDEVELOPMENT
• NO HOA
• UTILITIES ON SITE
• MINUTES TO GROWING RETAIL
• STRONG NEW-BUILD COMPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $159k).
• Recommended offer: $140k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.5% vs local median 3.0% in Little Elm — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#790 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Denton ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #383 of 826 in TX (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 1320 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 215 days — a 12% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $291k (65%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $159k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 215 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.85% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.45%
• DSCR: 2.62
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $476,528
• List price: $159,000
• Delta: -66.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.16×
• Total profit: $51,689
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.75×
• Total profit: $122,411
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75068

• Home prices YoY: -25.5%
• Rents YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 1320
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,946 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $897/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$619
• Net cashflow: $1,352

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,234

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,442	-5% $1,397	+0% $1,352	+5% $1,307	+10% $1,262
Rent	-10% $1,119	-5% $1,236	+0% $1,352	+5% $1,468	+10% $1,585
Rate	-1.0pp $1,432	-0.5pp $1,393	base $1,352	+0.5pp $1,311	+1.0pp $1,269

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
571 Lloyd's Rd Little Elm, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1751	$3,292	$1.88	0d	33	0.34mi
579 Lloyd's Rd Apt 701A Little Elm, TX	4.0	4.0	2739	$3,024	$1.10	44d	1	0.36mi
9620 Oxbow Ln Little Elm, TX	4.0	3.0	2268	$2,795	$1.23	7d	1	0.40mi
9624 Boulder Point Rd Little Elm, TX	4.0	4.0	2794	$2,850	$1.02	44d	1	0.44mi
3101 Bell Flower Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	3.0	1736	$3,000	$1.73	0d	1	0.52mi
9225 Buckeye Bnd Little Elm, TX	4.0	3.0	1854	$2,600	$1.40	13d	1	0.55mi
3609 Sawtooth Ln Little Elm, TX	4.0	3.5	2659	$3,200	$1.20	45d	1	0.62mi
3140 Brazoria Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	3.0	1809	$2,895	$1.60	4d	1	0.67mi
345 Willowmore Dr Little Elm, TX	5.0	4.0	2490	$3,000	$1.20	44d	1	0.80mi
9820 Surveyor Rd Little Elm, TX	4.0	3.5	3075	$3,250	$1.06	2d	1	0.81mi
3813 Oldham Rd Little Elm, TX	4.0	3.0	2780	$3,300	$1.19	44d	1	0.82mi
4123 Windy Point Rd Oak Point, TX	4.0	3.0	2249	$2,999	$1.33	13d	1	0.82mi
3837 Pennington Ave Little Elm, TX	4.0	3.0	2431	$2,650	$1.09	3d	1	0.84mi
813 Lake Forest Trl Little Elm, TX	5.0	3.5	2701	$2,600	$0.96	25d	1	0.85mi
845 Lake Meadow Ln Little Elm, TX	4.0	2.5	2437	$2,550	$1.05	8d	1	0.86mi
3853 Solebay Ct Little Elm, TX	4.0	3.0	2122	$2,700	$1.27	44d	1	0.87mi
1616 Lake Way Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	2.5	2926	$2,600	$0.89	21d	1	0.87mi
3853 Pearlwood Rd Little Elm, TX	4.0	2.0	2098	$2,600	$1.24	0d	1	0.89mi
9108 Tumbleweed Dr Cross Roads, TX	5.0	2.5	2512	$2,300	$0.92	25d	1	0.99mi
9011 King Ranch Dr Cross Roads, TX	4.0	2.5	2251	$2,600	$1.16	44d	1	0.99mi
3876 Lyndhurst Ave Little Elm, TX	4.0	3.0	2471	$2,500	$1.01	44d	1	0.99mi
3609 Sabine Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	2.0	2033	$2,395	$1.18	11d	1	1.02mi
1012 Lake Meadow Ln Little Elm, TX	4.0	3.0	2258	$2,450	$1.09	44d	1	1.03mi
213 Kistler Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	2.5	2470	$2,495	$1.01	23d	1	1.05mi
8908 Wagon Trl Cross Roads, TX	4.0	2.5	2353	$2,172	$0.92	6d	1	1.08mi
8824 Sagebrush Trl Cross Roads, TX	4.0	2.0	1959	$2,100	$1.07	4d	1	1.08mi
8812 Sagebrush Trl Cross Roads, TX	5.0	2.0	2512	$2,086	$0.83	44d	1	1.11mi
1713 Lake Pine Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	2.5	2792	$2,500	$0.90	44d	1	1.17mi
1412 Rose Bud Ct Little Elm, TX	4.0	2.0	2063	$2,600	$1.26	8d	1	1.17mi
8720 Chisholm Trl Cross Roads, TX	4.0	2.0	1881	$1,950	$1.04	44d	1	1.24mi
1308 Renoir Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	2.0	2015	$2,425	$1.20	18d	1	1.24mi
541 Breeds Hill Rd Little Elm, TX	4.0	3.0	2371	$2,750	$1.16	16d	1	1.25mi
1305 Rembrandt Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	2.5	2363	$2,490	$1.05	19d	1	1.26mi
536 Breeds Hill Rd Little Elm, TX	4.0	3.0	2175	$2,600	$1.20	21d	1	1.26mi
108 Invermore Dr Little Elm, TX	5.0	4.5	3357	$3,400	$1.01	0d	1	1.26mi
440 Backcountry Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	3.0	2279	$2,395	$1.05	44d	1	1.29mi
3021 Colorado Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	3.0	2934	$3,500	$1.19	44d	1	1.32mi
3013 Colorado Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	2.5	2757	$2,640	$0.96	44d	1	1.33mi
260 Backcountry Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	2.5	2279	$2,345	$1.03	25d	1	1.33mi
1500 Van Gogh Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	2.0	1861	$2,800	$1.50	44d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 42 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $159,000 Active 215 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,000 Active 212 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,000 Active 211 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,000 Active 210 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 209 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,000 Active 207 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,000 Active 203 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,000 Active 202 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,000 Active 201 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $159,000 Active 198 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,000 Active 197 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,000 Active 196 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,000 Active 195 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,000 Active 194 DOM
15. 2026-02-06
    price $159,000 1184-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1184 chars)

    Tear Down New Construction -Build your dream home! Builders, See ProForma in Transaction Documents, No zoning restrictions bring your boots and your blueprint dreams — A rare double-lot redevelopment gem in booming Little Elm, offered as a tear-down only and ready for your next profitable build. Reach out to the City of Oak Point Planning Department. MLS #21173079 is owned by the same seller and may be purchased separately or together with LAND Listing not Residential MLS#:21115111 Just minutes from Lake Lewisville and positioned near active new-construction communities by Risland Homes, Lennar, and Bloomfield Homes, this property sits in the center of Little Elm’s next wave of growth. Land is tightening. Demand is climbing. And this double-lot layout puts you ahead of the curve. Why This Property Wins for Builders & Investors: Two full lots included — ideal for a custom build, multi-gen concept, or potential replat (buyer to verify) No HOA — creativity unlocked; design without heavy restrictions Utilities on site Minutes to growing retail, dining, and major access roads Strong new-build comps nearby supporting resale value

16. 2025-11-18
    listed $450,000 Active 1184-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1184 chars)

    Tear Down New Construction -Build your dream home! Builders, See ProForma in Transaction Documents, No zoning restrictions bring your boots and your blueprint dreams — A rare double-lot redevelopment gem in booming Little Elm, offered as a tear-down only and ready for your next profitable build. Reach out to the City of Oak Point Planning Department. MLS #21173079 is owned by the same seller and may be purchased separately or together with LAND Listing not Residential MLS#:21115111 Just minutes from Lake Lewisville and positioned near active new-construction communities by Risland Homes, Lennar, and Bloomfield Homes, this property sits in the center of Little Elm’s next wave of growth. Land is tightening. Demand is climbing. And this double-lot layout puts you ahead of the curve. Why This Property Wins for Builders & Investors: Two full lots included — ideal for a custom build, multi-gen concept, or potential replat (buyer to verify) No HOA — creativity unlocked; design without heavy restrictions Utilities on site Minutes to growing retail, dining, and major access roads Strong new-build comps nearby supporting resale value

17. 2025-10-31
    historical
18. 2024-10-25
    listed $450,000 Active
19. 2024-08-15
    historical
20. 2024-03-29
    price $179,999
21. 2024-02-18
    listed $180,000 Active
22. 2024-02-12
    historical
23. 2023-08-18
    listed $220,000 Active
24. 2023-06-30
    historical
25. 2023-06-03
    price $250,000
26. 2023-05-17
    price $275,000
27. 2023-05-04
    price $300,000
28. 2023-05-04
    listed $300,000 Active
29. 2023-05-04
    historical
30. 2023-04-08
    listed $350,000 Active
31. 2019-01-28
    soldstatus
32. 2019-01-11
    soldstatus
33. 2019-01-08
    soldstatus
34. 2015-05-01
    soldstatus Sold
35. 2015-03-24
    soldstatus
36. 2015-02-23
    status Pending
37. 2015-02-13
    listed $63,600 Active
38. 2005-09-30
    soldstatus $100,500
39. 2005-09-27
    soldstatus
40. 2005-08-18
    historical
41. 2005-08-09
    listed $109,000
42. 2005-01-11
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $897 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,910 · $242/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,012/yr (+$168/mo · 224.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,346
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$897
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,828
• − Management: −$2,828
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable income: $14,467
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,472
• After-tax cash flow: $12,753/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Denton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816740
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $58,913
• Composite: 34.91/100
• National rank: #5075
• State rank: #383 of 826 in TX

Livability — Little Elm

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #790
• US rank: #14430

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 72,710
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 72,710
• Household income: $126,635
• Rent vs Own: 19.8% rent · 80.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 829.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.74)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 19% Two or more races 15% Asian 12% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 5% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.41%
• Current HPI: 249.755
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.50%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+45.9% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $159,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-18 Listed $450,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-31 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-10-25 Listed $450,000 NTREIS
• 2024-08-15 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-03-29 Price Changed $179,999 NTREIS
• 2024-02-18 Listed $180,000 NTREIS
• 2024-02-12 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2023-08-18 Listed $220,000 NTREIS
• 2023-06-30 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2023-06-03 Price Changed $250,000 NTREIS
• 2023-05-17 Price Changed $275,000 NTREIS
• 2023-05-04 Price Changed $300,000 NTREIS
• 2023-05-04 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2023-05-04 Listed $300,000 NTREIS
• 2023-04-08 Listed $350,000 NTREIS
• 2019-01-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-01-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-01-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-05-01 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2015-03-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-02-23 Pending — NTREIS
• 2015-02-13 Listed $63,600 NTREIS
• 2005-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $100,500 Public Records
• 2005-09-27 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2005-08-18 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2005-08-09 Listed $109,000 NTREIS
• 2005-01-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $897 · +24.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.