222 Gray Fox Crossing Xing

Warner Robins, GA 31005

$238,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,572 sqft · Built 2004 · SingleFamily · Pending · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,914/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax + insurance: −$259
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $-0/mo
• Annual: $-1/yr
• Cap rate: 6.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.00%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $66,892

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $239k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $0 ($-1/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (0.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (19.9% below list).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $191k (19.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#227 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Houston County (urban): math 43% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #23 of 174 in GA (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hilltop Elementary School (math 55% / reading 59%, grade C+, #151 of 1,228 statewide, top 13%, 600 students, 48% FRL); Huntington Middle School (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #268 of 470 statewide, top 57%, 827 students, 84% FRL); Veterans High School (math 33% / reading 32%, grade F, #104 of 424 statewide, top 25%, 1,914 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 240 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,545 units permitted in Houston County in 2024 (336 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Houston County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $206k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.9% in Warner Robins — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.