222 Gray Fox Crossing Xing · Warner Robins, GA 31005

$238,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,572 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 2004 10,018 sqft lot Est $242k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• ARV discount +8.1/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NO CARPET....Great house on a corner lot. Per seller New Roof in 2020! Full yard sprinkler, side entry garage, stainless appliances, wood laminate flooring, tile flooring in wet areas, granite counters in kitchen/tile backsplash, separate laundry room.

Key facts

• Corner-lot property
• Cement fiber siding
• Granite countertops

Tags

• CORNER-LOT PROPERTY
• CEMENT FIBER SIDING
• SIDE-ENTRY GARAGE
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• TILE BACKSPLASH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Bridlewood subdivision

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 covered parking space, 1 total garage space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Fiber cement exterior; Slab foundation; Built with above-grade finished living area
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Fenced yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave
• Flooring: Tile; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Storage; Blinds

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $239k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $0 ($-1/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (0.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (19.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $191k (19.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.9% in Warner Robins — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#227 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Houston County (urban): math 43% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #23 of 174 in GA (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hilltop Elementary School (math 55% / reading 59%, grade C+, #151 of 1,228 statewide, top 13%, 600 students, 48% FRL); Huntington Middle School (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #268 of 470 statewide, top 57%, 827 students, 84% FRL); Veterans High School (math 33% / reading 32%, grade F, #104 of 424 statewide, top 25%, 1,914 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 240 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,545 units permitted in Houston County in 2024 (336 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Houston County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $206k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $191,381 (19.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.00%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $242,088
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
220 Gray Fox Xing	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,548 (-2%)	0mo	$239,900	$155	96
407 Gray Fox Xing	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,571 (-0%)	2mo	$237,500	$151	90
117 Fieldwalk Chase	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,560 (-1%)	3mo	$170,000	$109	80
102 Brookhaven Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,590 (+1%)	5mo	$215,000	$135	77
303 Gray Fox Xing	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,415 (-10%)	6mo	$219,500	$155	76
113 Gray Fox Xing	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,717 (+9%)	2mo	$270,000	$157	72
111 Turtle Creek Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,542 (-2%)	2mo	$230,000	$149	62
212 Wynfield Ln	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,396 (-11%)	2mo	$215,000	$154	61
101 Buckskin Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,476 (-6%)	1mo	$155,000	$105	58
306 Thornwood Dr	0.44mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,775 (+13%)	5mo	$255,000	$144	47
308 Peach Blossom Rd	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,388 (-12%)	4mo	$237,000	$171	45
107 Billington Ct	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,377 (-12%)	0mo	$245,000	$178	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-35,781
• Equity at exit: $35,621

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-18,729
• Equity at exit: $20,656

Cash invested: $66,892 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31005

• Home prices YoY: -17.1%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 240
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,914 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax from tax record: −$160 /mo · $1,915/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $-0

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,914

Max offer price $238,891

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $135	-5% $68	+0% $0	+5% $-68	+10% $-135
Rent	-10% $-151	-5% $-76	+0% $0	+5% $76	+10% $151
Rate	-1.0pp $120	-0.5pp $61	base $0	+0.5pp $-62	+1.0pp $-125

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,725
• Closing costs: $7,167
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
210 Strawbridge Ln Bonaire, GA	3.0	2.0	1214	$1,600	$1.32	23d	1	0.14mi
113 Gray Fox Xing Bonaire, GA	4.0	2.0	1717	$2,200	$1.28	23d	1	0.16mi
100 Strawbridge Ln Bonaire, GA	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,600	$1.28	23d	1	0.24mi
100 Strawbridge Ln Bonaire, GA	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,600	$1.28	45d	1	0.24mi
120 Chadwyck Cir Bonaire, GA	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,650	$1.30	23d	1	0.38mi
627 Maplewood Dr Bonaire, GA	3.0	2.0	1080	$975	$0.90	23d	1	0.44mi
642 Maplewood Dr Bonaire, GA	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,400	$1.27	45d	1	0.50mi
102 Duxbury Ct Bonaire, GA	3.0	2.0	1725	$1,975	$1.14	23d	1	0.96mi
106 Leisure Pointe Cv Warner Robins, GA	4.0	2.5	1682	$1,950	$1.16	15d	1	1.07mi
106 Leisure Pointe Cv Warner Robins, GA	4.0	2.5	1682	$2,000	$1.19	45d	1	1.07mi
109 Leisure Pointe Cv Warner Robins, GA	4.0	2.5	1682	$1,925	$1.14	45d	1	1.08mi
800 Leisure Lake Dr Warner Robins, GA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	950	$1,365	$1.44	15d	34	1.19mi
101 Webster Way Warner Robins, GA	3.0	2.0	1320	$1,650	$1.25	45d	1	1.22mi
116 Webster Way Warner Robins, GA	2.0	2.0	1320	$1,650	$1.25	45d	1	1.23mi
108 Crossfield Dr Warner Robins, GA	3.0	2.0	1548	$1,795	$1.16	23d	1	1.30mi
203 Bryson Way Warner Robins, GA	3.0	2.0	1858	$1,850	$1.00	45d	1	1.35mi
106 Lions Gate Bonaire, GA	3.0	2.0	1159	$1,600	$1.38	45d	1	1.44mi
40 Cohen Walker Dr Bonaire, GA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	905	$1,900	$2.10	15d	1	1.45mi
309 Raleigh Dr Warner Robins, GA	4.0	2.5	1984	$4,995	$2.52	45d	1	1.45mi
309 Raleigh Dr Warner Robins, GA	4.0	3.0	1984	$4,995	$2.52	23d	1	1.45mi
104 Melissa Ln Warner Robins, GA	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,675	$1.22	46d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $238,900 Pending 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   days on market $238,900 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $238,900 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $238,900 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $238,900 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $238,900 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-05-30
   remarks 687-char remark
8. 2026-05-30
   listed $238,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,915 · $160/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,198 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: +$283/yr (+$24/mo · 14.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,966
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,382
• − Property taxes: −$1,915
• − Insurance: −$1,194
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,837
• − Management: −$1,837
• − Depreciation: −$6,950
• Taxable loss: −$4,150
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$996
• After-tax cash flow: $995/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston County
• NCES district ID: 1302880
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $54,823
• Composite: 38.68/100
• National rank: #4144
• State rank: #23 of 174 in GA

Livability — Warner Robins

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #227
• US rank: #13290

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warner Robins, GA
• County: Houston County · 157,321 people
• City population: 92,102
• Metro: Warner Robins, GA
• Population (ZIP): 22,063
• Household income: $110,461
• Rent vs Own: 22.1% rent · 77.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 212.0

Population outlook (Houston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 169,502 people
• By 2030: 178,486 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 194,642 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 207,119 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 231,480 · +36.6%
• By 2100: 235,034 · +38.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Black 23% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Houston

• 2024 margin: R (+11.3) · D 44.0% · R 55.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.9pp toward D · 2008: -20.2pp · 2024: -11.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.3 2020: R+12.4 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+20.7 2008: R+20.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.85%
• Current HPI: 213.0605
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.53%
• Metro: Warner Robins, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+1416.8% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $238,900 CGMLS
• 2022-05-06 Sold (Public Records) $206,000 Public Records
• 2022-04-19 Sold (MLS) $206,000 CGMLS
• 2022-04-19 Sold (MLS) $206,000 GAMLS
• 2022-03-21 Pending — GAMLS
• 2022-03-20 Pending — GAMLS
• 2022-03-18 Listed $195,000 CGMLS
• 2022-03-16 Listed $195,000 GAMLS
• 2018-05-22 Sold (Public Records) $138,000 Public Records
• 2018-05-17 Sold (MLS) $138,000 CGMLS
• 2018-05-17 Sold (MLS) $138,000 GAMLS
• 2018-03-05 Listed $141,500 CGMLS
• 2018-03-05 Listed $141,500 GAMLS
• 2006-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $124,900 Public Records
• 2003-12-16 Sold (Public Records) $15,750 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,915 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.