3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,237 sqft ·
Built 1920
· Other
· Pending
· 113 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$18,574/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$17,043
Tax + insurance
−$5,417
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$3,901
Net cashflow
$-7,787/mo
Annual
$-93,439/yr
Cap rate
3.42%
Cash-on-cash
-10.27%
DSCR
0.54
1% rule
0.57%
Cash to close
$910,000
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $3.25M.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-8k ($-93k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $2.12M (34.7% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.86M (42.8% below list).
It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($2.96M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $1.86M (42.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $22k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $98k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 69/100 on livability (#472 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: commute D+, amenities F, cost of living F.
Southampton Union Free School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #293 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+14.6%/yr); 95 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 64% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $1.80M; list at $3.25M implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 3.4% vs local median 2.8% in Southampton — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
At $18,574/mo this rent would consume 143% of the median local household income ($156k/yr) (locally 274% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-M11K874RTDN77V
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29