2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,127 sqft ·
Built 1974
· Condo
· Active
· 241 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$6,697/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,779
Tax + insurance
−$1,310
HOA
−$1,397
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,406
Net cashflow
$-196/mo
Annual
$-2,350/yr
Cap rate
6.82%
Cash-on-cash
1.87%
DSCR
1.08
1% rule
1.26%
Cash to close
$148,400
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $530k. Condition is rated excellent.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-196 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $502k (5.3% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $530k).
It's been on market 241 days — a 12% lower offer ($466k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $466k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 67/100 on livability (#541 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing D+, amenities F, commute F.
Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: The Sanibel School (math 92% / reading 92%, grade A+, #5 of 2,144 statewide, top 0%, 289 students, 12% FRL); South Fort Myers High School (math 23% / reading 30%, grade F, #489 of 667 statewide, top 74%, 1,917 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools average 31% FRL vs 57% district-wide (26 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 21% of rent.
Market conditions: 582 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 2.6% in Sanibel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $6,697/mo this rent would consume 65% of the median local household income ($123k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 241 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
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· Data 7 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29