100 Post Oak

Hilltop Lakes, TX 77871

$94,900B-

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Built 1965 · SingleFamily · Pending · 149 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,412/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax + insurance: −$321
• HOA: −$140
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$296
• Net cashflow: $156/mo
• Annual: $1,875/yr
• Cap rate: 8.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.06%
• DSCR: 1.31
• 1% rule: 1.49%
• Cash to close: $26,572

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $156 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($656 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,029 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, schools F.
• Normangee ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #301 of 826 in TX (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price.
• Market conditions: 132 active listings in the ZIP.
• 6 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (3.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 1.2% in Hilltop Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.