100 Post Oak · Hilltop Lakes, TX 77871

$94,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 149 Days on market

Built 1965 8,712 sqft lot $62/sqft · 55% below area $140/mo HOA · 10% of rent ↓ 51% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.3/30.0
• 1% rule +9.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

4 bedroom, 2 bath home with living dining combo and outbuilding in Hilltop Lakes. This property will be available via an online auction on Auction .com beginning 5-17-26. Auction terms and conditions will apply.

Key facts

• 8,712 sq ft lot
• Built 1965
• Listed 149 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $156 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 1.2% in Hilltop Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,029 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, schools F.
• Normangee ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #301 of 826 in TX (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 132 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($656 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.2% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.06%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $209,479
• List price: $94,900
• Delta: -54.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
43 Lakeview Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,484 (-3%)	24mo	$215,000	$145	51
30 Gloccomorra	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,384 (-10%)	23mo	$190,000	$137	40
10 Camden Hls	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,674 (+9%)	12mo	$324,900	$194	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.24% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.86×
• Total profit: $22,789
• Equity at exit: $43,946

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.48×
• Total profit: $66,008
• Equity at exit: $68,735

Cash invested: $26,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77871

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 132
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,412 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$282 /mo · $3,382/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$140
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$296
• Net cashflow: $156

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,214

Max offer price $94,900

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,725
• Closing costs: $2,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $140 · $1,680/yr

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending 211-char remark

   Show marketing remark (212 chars)

   4 bedroom, 2 bath home with living dining combo and outbuilding in Hilltop Lakes. This property will be available via an online auction on Auction . com beginning 5-17-26. Auction terms and conditions will apply.

2. 2026-05-19
   status Pending 212-char remark

   Show marketing remark (212 chars)

   4 bedroom, 2 bath home with living dining combo and outbuilding in Hilltop Lakes. This property will be available via an online auction on Auction . com beginning 5-17-26. Auction terms and conditions will apply.

3. 2026-04-16
   price $94,900 212-char remark

   Show marketing remark (211 chars)

   4 bedroom, 2 bath home with living dining combo and outbuilding in Hilltop Lakes. This property will be available via an online auction on Auction .com beginning 5-17-26. Auction terms and conditions will apply.

4. 2026-04-16
   price $94,900 211-char remark

   Show marketing remark (211 chars)

   4 bedroom, 2 bath home with living dining combo and outbuilding in Hilltop Lakes. This property will be available via an online auction on Auction .com beginning 5-17-26. Auction terms and conditions will apply.

5. 2026-04-08
   price $96,900 212-char remark

   Show marketing remark (211 chars)

   4 bedroom, 2 bath home with living dining combo and outbuilding in Hilltop Lakes. This property will be available via an online auction on Auction .com beginning 5-17-26. Auction terms and conditions will apply.

6. 2026-04-08
   price $96,900 211-char remark

   Show marketing remark (211 chars)

   4 bedroom, 2 bath home with living dining combo and outbuilding in Hilltop Lakes. This property will be available via an online auction on Auction .com beginning 5-17-26. Auction terms and conditions will apply.

7. 2026-04-02
   price $99,900 212-char remark

   Show marketing remark (211 chars)

   4 bedroom, 2 bath home with living dining combo and outbuilding in Hilltop Lakes. This property will be available via an online auction on Auction .com beginning 5-17-26. Auction terms and conditions will apply.

8. 2026-04-02
   price $99,900 211-char remark

   Show marketing remark (211 chars)

   4 bedroom, 2 bath home with living dining combo and outbuilding in Hilltop Lakes. This property will be available via an online auction on Auction .com beginning 5-17-26. Auction terms and conditions will apply.

9. 2026-03-11
   price $109,900 212-char remark

   Show marketing remark (211 chars)

   4 bedroom, 2 bath home with living dining combo and outbuilding in Hilltop Lakes. This property will be available via an online auction on Auction .com beginning 5-17-26. Auction terms and conditions will apply.

10. 2026-03-11
    price $109,900 211-char remark

    Show marketing remark (211 chars)

    4 bedroom, 2 bath home with living dining combo and outbuilding in Hilltop Lakes. This property will be available via an online auction on Auction .com beginning 5-17-26. Auction terms and conditions will apply.

11. 2026-02-10
    price $114,900 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (211 chars)

    4 bedroom, 2 bath home with living dining combo and outbuilding in Hilltop Lakes. This property will be available via an online auction on Auction .com beginning 5-17-26. Auction terms and conditions will apply.

12. 2026-02-10
    price $114,900 211-char remark

    Show marketing remark (211 chars)

    4 bedroom, 2 bath home with living dining combo and outbuilding in Hilltop Lakes. This property will be available via an online auction on Auction .com beginning 5-17-26. Auction terms and conditions will apply.

13. 2026-02-06
    status Active 211-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    4 bedroom, 2 bath home with living dining combo and outbuilding in Hilltop Lakes. This property will be available via an online auction on Auction . com beginning 5-17-26. Auction terms and conditions will apply.

14. 2026-02-06
    status Active 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    4 bedroom, 2 bath home with living dining combo and outbuilding in Hilltop Lakes. This property will be available via an online auction on Auction . com beginning 5-17-26. Auction terms and conditions will apply.

15. 2026-01-22
    status Pending 211-char remark

    Show marketing remark (211 chars)

    4 bedroom, 2 bath home with living dining combo and outbuilding in Hilltop Lakes. This property will be available via an online auction on Auction .com beginning 5-17-26. Auction terms and conditions will apply.

16. 2026-01-14
    status Pending 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    4 bedroom, 2 bath home with living dining combo and outbuilding in Hilltop Lakes. This property will be available via an online auction on Auction . com beginning 5-17-26. Auction terms and conditions will apply.

17. 2025-11-25
    listed $119,900 Active 211-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    4 bedroom, 2 bath home with living dining combo and outbuilding in Hilltop Lakes. This property will be available via an online auction on Auction . com beginning 5-17-26. Auction terms and conditions will apply.

18. 2025-11-25
    listed $119,900 Active 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    4 bedroom, 2 bath home with living dining combo and outbuilding in Hilltop Lakes. This property will be available via an online auction on Auction . com beginning 5-17-26. Auction terms and conditions will apply.

19. 2022-05-17
    soldstatus Sold
20. 2022-04-08
    status Pending
21. 2022-04-01
    status Option Pending
22. 2022-01-20
    price $152,500
23. 2021-09-19
    listed $181,900 Active
24. 2021-06-30
    historical
25. 2021-01-17
    listed $195,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,382 · $282/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,382 · $282/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,941
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,316
• − Property taxes: −$3,382
• − Insurance: −$474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,355
• − Management: −$1,355
• − HOA: −$1,680
• − Depreciation: −$2,761
• Taxable income: $617
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$148
• After-tax cash flow: $1,727/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Normangee ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832910
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,539
• Composite: 37.05/100
• National rank: #4510
• State rank: #301 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hilltop Lakes

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1029
• US rank: #18255

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hilltop Lakes, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,744

Population outlook (Leon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,271 people
• By 2030: 17,271 · +0.0%
• By 2040: 17,151 · -0.7%
• By 2050: 16,863 · -2.4%
• By 2075: 16,304 · -5.6%
• By 2100: 13,968 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 12% Black 5% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Vietnam, Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Leon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+76.7) · D 11.4% · R 88.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.8pp toward R · 2008: -58.9pp · 2024: -76.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+76.7 2020: R+74.4 2016: R+74.0 2012: R+68.4 2008: R+58.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.24%
• Current HPI: 232.7718
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-51.3% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — BCSRMLS
• 2026-05-19 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $94,900 NTREIS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $94,900 BCSRMLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $96,900 NTREIS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $96,900 BCSRMLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $99,900 NTREIS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $99,900 BCSRMLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $109,900 NTREIS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $109,900 BCSRMLS
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $114,900 NTREIS
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $114,900 BCSRMLS
• 2026-02-06 Relisted — BCSRMLS
• 2026-02-06 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-01-22 Pending — BCSRMLS
• 2026-01-14 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-11-25 Listed $119,900 NTREIS
• 2025-11-25 Listed $119,900 BCSRMLS
• 2022-05-17 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-04-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-04-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-01-20 Price Changed $152,500 HARMLS
• 2021-09-19 Listed $181,900 HARMLS
• 2021-06-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2021-01-17 Listed $195,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+9.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,382 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.