Barkley (Forest Lakes) Plan

Conway, AR 72034

$65,995D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 849 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Active · 320 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,007/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$346
• Tax + insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$400
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$211
• Net cashflow: $-61/mo
• Annual: $-731/yr
• Cap rate: 5.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.96%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 1.53%
• Cash to close: $18,479

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $66k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-61 ($-731/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $57k (13.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $66k).
• It's been on market 320 days — a 12% lower offer ($58k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $57k (13.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $456 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#71 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools B; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Conway School District (urban): math 43% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #36 of 238 in AR (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 40% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 262 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 865 units permitted in Faulkner County in 2024 (451 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Faulkner County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.9% in Conway — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 320 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?