162 Private Road 3494

Paradise, TX 76073

$256,500D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,368 sqft · Built 2007 · Manufactured · Pending · 44 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,029/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,345
• Tax + insurance: −$285
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $-27/mo
• Annual: $-327/yr
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.46%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $71,820

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $256k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-27 ($-327/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (1.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (20.9% below list).
• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($249k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $203k (20.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#570 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, crime D-.
• Paradise ISD (rural): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #74 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Paradise El (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,155 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 436 students, 34% FRL); Paradise Middle (math 50% / reading 55%, grade C+, #293 of 1,662 statewide, top 18%, 293 students, 25% FRL); Paradise H S (math 67% / reading 77%, grade B+, #95 of 1,632 statewide, top 7%, 388 students, 24% FRL) — zoned schools at 28% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 106 active listings in the ZIP; 460 units permitted in Wise County in 2024 (243 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wise County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 1.7% in Paradise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.