233 Water St

German, PA 15468

$19,900D+

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,145 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Active · 235 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,243/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$104
• Tax + insurance: −$89
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $789/mo
• Annual: $9,465/yr
• Cap rate: 57.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 181.83%
• DSCR: 9.09
• 1% rule: 6.25%
• Cash to close: $5,572

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $20k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $789 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $20k).
• It's been on market 235 days — a 12% lower offer ($18k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $18k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $230 of equity ($138 loan paydown + $92 appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Albert Gallatin Area SD (rural): math 26% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #419 of 539 in PA (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: George J Plava El Sch (math 12% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,154 of 1,518 statewide, top 77%, 321 students, 100% FRL); Albert Gallatin North Ms (math 19% / reading 43%, grade F, #374 of 512 statewide, top 73%, 385 students, 100% FRL); Albert Gallatin Area Shs (math 48% / reading 50%, grade D, #151 of 437 statewide, top 35%, 964 students, 76% FRL) — zoned schools average 92% FRL vs 56% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 201 units permitted in Fayette County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fayette County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (39%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $20k implies a 59% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 235 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.