233 Water St · German, PA 15468

$19,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,145 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 235 Days on market

Built 1900 9,147 sqft lot $9/sqft · 86% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor Special! Spacious 4-bedroom 1.5 bath home in a nice area. Main level bath and laundry hook-up. Large rooms, a full basement, a covered front porch, and a two-car garage. An excellent investment opportunity!

Key facts

• 9,147 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1900

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $20k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $789 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $20k).
• Recommended offer: $18k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Albert Gallatin Area SD (rural): math 26% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #419 of 539 in PA (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: George J Plava El Sch (math 12% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,154 of 1,518 statewide, top 77%, 321 students, 100% FRL); Albert Gallatin North Ms (math 19% / reading 43%, grade F, #374 of 512 statewide, top 73%, 385 students, 100% FRL); Albert Gallatin Area Shs (math 48% / reading 50%, grade D, #151 of 437 statewide, top 35%, 964 students, 76% FRL) — zoned schools average 92% FRL vs 56% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 201 units permitted in Fayette County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $230 of equity ($138 loan paydown + $92 appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Fayette County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 235 days — a 12% lower offer ($18k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (39%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $20k implies a 59% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $17,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 235 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 6.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 57.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 181.83%
• DSCR: 9.09
• GRM: 1.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $147,098
• List price: $19,900
• Delta: -83.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

0.46% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 10.00×
• Total profit: $50,144
• Equity at exit: $6,242

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 21.04×
• Total profit: $111,680
• Equity at exit: $7,885

Cash invested: $5,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15468

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 1.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,243 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$104
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$25 /mo · $298/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $789

Break-even live

Break-even rent $244

Max offer price $19,900

Occupancy floor 32%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $803	-5% $796	+0% $789	+5% $782	+10% $775
Rent	-10% $691	-5% $740	+0% $789	+5% $838	+10% $887
Rate	-1.0pp $799	-0.5pp $794	base $789	+0.5pp $784	+1.0pp $778

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,975
• Closing costs: $597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 40 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $19,900 Active 235 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $25,000 Active 233 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $25,000 Active 232 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $25,000 Active 231 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $25,000 Active 230 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $25,000 Active 229 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $25,000 Active 227 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $25,000 Active 226 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $25,000 Active 224 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $25,000 Active 223 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $25,000 Active 222 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $25,000 Active 221 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $25,000 Active 216 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $25,000 Active 215 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $25,000 Active 214 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $25,000 Active 213 DOM
17. 2026-04-20
    price $25,000 215-char remark

    Show marketing remark (215 chars)

    Investor Special! Spacious 4-bedroom 1.5 bath home in a nice area. Main level bath and laundry hook-up. Large rooms, a full basement, a covered front porch, and a two-car garage. An excellent investment opportunity!

18. 2026-03-06
    price $29,999 215-char remark

    Show marketing remark (215 chars)

    Investor Special! Spacious 4-bedroom 1.5 bath home in a nice area. Main level bath and laundry hook-up. Large rooms, a full basement, a covered front porch, and a two-car garage. An excellent investment opportunity!

19. 2026-02-02
    price $31,500 215-char remark

    Show marketing remark (215 chars)

    Investor Special! Spacious 4-bedroom 1.5 bath home in a nice area. Main level bath and laundry hook-up. Large rooms, a full basement, a covered front porch, and a two-car garage. An excellent investment opportunity!

20. 2025-10-29
    listed $32,500 Active 215-char remark

    Show marketing remark (215 chars)

    Investor Special! Spacious 4-bedroom 1.5 bath home in a nice area. Main level bath and laundry hook-up. Large rooms, a full basement, a covered front porch, and a two-car garage. An excellent investment opportunity!

21. 2025-10-28
    historical Expired 184-char remark

    Show marketing remark (184 chars)

    INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY! Spacious 4-bedroom 1.5 bath home in a nice area. Main level bath and laundry hook-up. Large rooms, a full basement, a covered front porch, and a two-car garage.

22. 2024-12-17
    listed $32,500 Active 184-char remark

    Show marketing remark (184 chars)

    INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY! Spacious 4-bedroom 1.5 bath home in a nice area. Main level bath and laundry hook-up. Large rooms, a full basement, a covered front porch, and a two-car garage.

23. 2024-09-20
    historical Expired
24. 2024-09-20
    listed $32,500 Active
25. 2024-09-12
    historical Expired
26. 2024-07-17
    price $32,500
27. 2024-03-12
    listed $33,500 Active
28. 2024-03-12
    historical Expired
29. 2024-02-06
    price $33,500
30. 2023-12-01
    price $34,000
31. 2023-09-21
    price $35,000
32. 2023-06-27
    price $49,000
33. 2023-03-20
    listed $50,000 Active
34. 2022-06-15
    soldstatus $12,500 Closed
35. 2022-03-21
    status Pending
36. 2022-03-17
    historical
37. 2022-03-17
    historical Contingent
38. 2022-03-04
    price $14,900
39. 2022-02-01
    price $17,500
40. 2021-12-31
    listed $21,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 78% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,914
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,115
• − Property taxes: −$298
• − Insurance: −$766
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,193
• − Management: −$1,193
• − Depreciation: −$579
• Taxable income: $9,770
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,345
• After-tax cash flow: $7,120/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Albert Gallatin Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4202100
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $36,456
• Composite: 29.8/100
• National rank: #6422
• State rank: #419 of 539 in PA

Livability — German

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,230

Population outlook (Fayette County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 127,561 people
• By 2030: 123,206 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 113,232 · -11.2%
• By 2050: 103,468 · -18.9%
• By 2075: 83,185 · -34.8%
• By 2100: 62,384 · -51.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Lithuanian 9% Italian 4%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fayette

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.9) · D 30.8% · R 68.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -37.5pp toward R · 2008: -0.4pp · 2024: -37.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.9 2020: R+33.5 2016: R+31.0 2012: R+8.3 2008: R+0.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.46%
• Current HPI: 135.7723
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+14.2% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $25,000 West Penn MLS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $29,999 West Penn MLS
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $31,500 West Penn MLS
• 2025-10-29 Listed $32,500 West Penn MLS
• 2025-10-28 Delisted — West Penn MLS
• 2024-12-17 Listed $32,500 West Penn MLS
• 2024-09-20 Listed $32,500 West Penn MLS
• 2024-09-20 Delisted — West Penn MLS
• 2024-09-12 Delisted — West Penn MLS
• 2024-07-17 Price Changed $32,500 West Penn MLS
• 2024-03-12 Delisted — West Penn MLS
• 2024-03-12 Listed $33,500 West Penn MLS
• 2024-02-06 Price Changed $33,500 West Penn MLS
• 2023-12-01 Price Changed $34,000 West Penn MLS
• 2023-09-21 Price Changed $35,000 West Penn MLS
• 2023-06-27 Price Changed $49,000 West Penn MLS
• 2023-03-20 Listed $50,000 West Penn MLS
• 2022-06-15 Sold (MLS) $12,500 West Penn MLS
• 2022-03-21 Pending — West Penn MLS
• 2022-03-17 Delisted — West Penn MLS
• 2022-03-17 Contingent — West Penn MLS
• 2022-03-04 Price Changed $14,900 West Penn MLS
• 2022-02-01 Price Changed $17,500 West Penn MLS
• 2021-12-31 Listed $21,900 West Penn MLS

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,013 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.