149 Monarch Dr

Fortuna, CA 95540

$111,111B-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 1990 · Manufactured · Active · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,536/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$583
• Tax + insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $518/mo
• Annual: $6,218/yr
• Cap rate: 11.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.99%
• DSCR: 1.89
• 1% rule: 1.38%
• Cash to close: $31,111

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $111k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $518 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $111k).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $768 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#246 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, commute A-; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Fortuna Union High (town): math 17% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #350 of 517 in CA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Linell K. Walker Elementary (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,179 of 1,571 statewide, top 78%, 294 students, 82% FRL); Fortuna Middle (math 10% / reading 24%, grade F, #443 of 498 statewide, top 90%, 237 students, 80% FRL); Fortuna Union High (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #826 of 1,170 statewide, top 80%, 830 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 188 units permitted in Humboldt County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Humboldt County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 7 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 2.4% in Fortuna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.