149 Monarch Dr · Fortuna, CA 95540

$111,111

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 6 Days on market

Built 1990 ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This well maintained 2 bed 2 bath home is located in Fortuna's desirable Royal Crest Estates senior (55+) community. The home features new laminate wood flooring throughout the spacious living room and dining nook. The bright kitchen has skylights and includes stainless steel appliances with plenty of room for cooking and baking. The home has dual pane windows and custom window coverings. The front porch was redone in 2021. There are two outdoor sheds for extra storage space. The shed at the end of the carport has electricity and light. In addition to the charm of this home, the neighborhood is quiet and friendly. Pets are allowed with park approval. Current space rent is $845. Contact your favorite Realtor to set up a showing.

Key facts

• Dual-pane windows
• Skylights
• Garage

Tags

• NEW LAMINATE FLOORING
• SKYLIGHTS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• DUAL-PANE WINDOWS
• CUSTOM WINDOW COVERINGS
• REFRESHED FRONT PORCH

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 220 volts available in laundry
• Home design: Residential single-family home; Located in Royal Crest park (mobile home make: Skyline, model: Springview8501)
• Construction: Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Cross-fenced yard; Outbuilding

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total of 6 rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Laminate
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air heating; Natural gas
• Interior features: Cathedral and vaulted ceilings; Ceiling fans; Pantry; Skylights; Double-pane windows; Insulation (energy-efficient feature)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric dryer hookup; 220V outlet in laundry area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $111k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $518 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $111k).
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 2.4% in Fortuna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#246 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, commute A-; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Fortuna Union High (town): math 17% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #350 of 517 in CA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Linell K. Walker Elementary (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,179 of 1,571 statewide, top 78%, 294 students, 82% FRL); Fortuna Middle (math 10% / reading 24%, grade F, #443 of 498 statewide, top 90%, 237 students, 80% FRL); Fortuna Union High (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #826 of 1,170 statewide, top 80%, 830 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 188 units permitted in Humboldt County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $768 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Humboldt County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $111,111

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.99%
• DSCR: 1.89
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $14,975
• Equity at exit: $16,567

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $55,446
• Equity at exit: $9,607

Cash invested: $31,111 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95540

• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,536 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$583
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $792/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $518

Break-even live

Break-even rent $880

Max offer price $111,111

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $581	-5% $550	+0% $518	+5% $487	+10% $455
Rent	-10% $397	-5% $457	+0% $518	+5% $579	+10% $639
Rate	-1.0pp $574	-0.5pp $546	base $518	+0.5pp $489	+1.0pp $460

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,778
• Closing costs: $3,333
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $111,111 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $111,111 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $111,111 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $111,111 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-16
   listed $111,111 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $792 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $844 · $70/mo
• Expected delta: +$53/yr (+$4/mo · 6.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥84°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,427
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,224
• − Property taxes: −$792
• − Insurance: −$556
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,474
• − Management: −$1,474
• − Depreciation: −$3,232
• Taxable income: $4,675
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,122
• After-tax cash flow: $5,096/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fortuna Union High
• NCES district ID: 0614190
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $41,411
• Composite: 25.69/100
• National rank: #7386
• State rank: #350 of 517 in CA

Livability — Fortuna

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #246
• US rank: #8234

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living F Crime B- Employment D+ Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fortuna, CA
• City population: 14,641
• Population (ZIP): 14,641

Population outlook (Humboldt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 135,550 people
• By 2030: 134,798 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 132,222 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 130,850 · -3.5%
• By 2075: 128,656 · -5.1%
• By 2100: 120,238 · -11.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 12% Asian 3% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Humboldt

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.4) · D 62.0% · R 33.6% · Other 4.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 28.2pp · 2024: 28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.4 2020: D+33.4 2016: D+25.9 2012: D+26.2 2008: D+28.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -232.72%
• Current HPI: 236.0203
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-11.1% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $111,111 HAR
• 2025-03-31 Sold (MLS) $127,500 HAR
• 2025-02-12 Listed $129,900 HAR
• 2024-10-09 Listed $130,000 HAR
• 2024-02-28 Sold (MLS) $125,000 HAR
• 2024-01-08 Pending — HAR
• 2023-11-16 Listed $125,000 HAR
• 2023-09-01 Sold (MLS) $107,000 HAR
• 2023-08-26 Pending — HAR
• 2023-08-13 Delisted — HAR
• 2023-07-18 Pending — HAR
• 2023-07-11 Relisted — HAR
• 2023-06-20 Pending — HAR
• 2023-04-27 Price Changed $120,000 HAR
• 2023-03-27 Relisted — HAR
• 2023-03-06 Pending — HAR
• 2023-02-20 Listed $125,000 HAR

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2023): $792 · -1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.