1016 Selene Sky Dr

Brookshire, TX 77423

$295,990F

6 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,408 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 44 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,537/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,997
• Tax + insurance: −$635
• HOA: −$144
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$533
• Net cashflow: $-771/mo
• Annual: $-9,255/yr
• Cap rate: 3.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.68%
• DSCR: 0.61
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $106,621

Investor read

• This is a 6-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $296k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-771 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (9.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $254k (14.3% below list).
• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($287k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $254k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#960 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Royal ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #744 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Royal El (math 27% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 762 students, 78% FRL); Royal J H (math 22% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 593 students, 73% FRL); Royal H S (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 842 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools at 74% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1404 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $42k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.