1016 Selene Sky Dr · Pattison, TX 77423

$307,990

6 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,408 sqft · SingleFamily · 93 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $128/sqft · 19% below area Est $381k · 19% under ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Dallas floor plan offers a spacious two-story design with 2,477 square feet of thoughtfully crafted living space, featuring 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. This versatile layout is ideal for families seeking both open gathering areas and private retreats. The main floor welcomes you with an open-concept living area that seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and family room, creating the perfect setting for entertaining or relaxing. The modern kitchen boasts a large island, generous counter space, and ample cabinetry, making meal prep and family dinners easy and enjoyable. A first-floor bedroom and full bath provide flexibility for guests or multi-generational living. Upstairs, the spacious owner's suite offers a private escape complete with a large walk-in closet and an ensuite bath featuring dual sinks and a walk-in shower. Three additional bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a versatile loft space provide plenty of room for family, hobbies, or a home office. With thoughtful storage options, a convenient laundry room, and open sightlines throughout, the Dallas floor plan combines functionality, style, and comfort- perfect for modern families who value space, flexibility, and connection in their everyday living.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 93 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $308k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-184 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $281k (8.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (20.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $246k (20.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.4% in Pattison — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#876 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Royal ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #744 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Royal El (math 27% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 762 students, 78% FRL); Royal J H (math 22% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 593 students, 73% FRL); Royal H S (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 842 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools at 74% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1014 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($280k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $246,073 (20.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.57%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $380,790
• List price: $307,990
• Delta: -19.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1032 Selene Sky Dr	0.31mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,733 (+14%)	1mo	$377,990	$138	55
1008 Sunlit Cir	0.40mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,722 (+13%)	1mo	$375,040	$138	52
1060 Sunlit Cir	0.44mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,722 (+13%)	1mo	$380,790	$140	49
1116 Sunlit Cir	0.54mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,722 (+13%)	2mo	$380,790	$140	44
1096 Sunlit Cir	0.53mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,722 (+13%)	3mo	$299,990	$110	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-68,831
• Equity at exit: $45,922

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.19×
• Total profit: $-102,784
• Equity at exit: $26,629

Cash invested: $86,237 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77423

• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1014
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,461 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,615
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$385 /mo · $4,620/yr
• Insurance: −$128
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$517
• Net cashflow: $-184

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,694

Max offer price $281,296

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $28	-5% $-78	+0% $-184	+5% $-291	+10% $-397
Rent	-10% $-379	-5% $-282	+0% $-184	+5% $-87	+10% $10
Rate	-1.0pp $-29	-0.5pp $-106	base $-184	+0.5pp $-264	+1.0pp $-345

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,998
• Closing costs: $9,240
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $307,990 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $307,990 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $307,990 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $307,990 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $307,990 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $307,990 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $307,990 Active 83 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $307,990 Active 82 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $307,990 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $307,990 Active 78 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $307,990 Active 77 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $307,990 Active 76 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $307,990 Active 75 DOM
14. 2026-05-07
    price $307,990 1246-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1246 chars)

    The Dallas floor plan offers a spacious two-story design with 2,477 square feet of thoughtfully crafted living space, featuring 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. This versatile layout is ideal for families seeking both open gathering areas and private retreats. The main floor welcomes you with an open-concept living area that seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and family room, creating the perfect setting for entertaining or relaxing. The modern kitchen boasts a large island, generous counter space, and ample cabinetry, making meal prep and family dinners easy and enjoyable. A first-floor bedroom and full bath provide flexibility for guests or multi-generational living. Upstairs, the spacious owner's suite offers a private escape complete with a large walk-in closet and an ensuite bath featuring dual sinks and a walk-in shower. Three additional bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a versatile loft space provide plenty of room for family, hobbies, or a home office. With thoughtful storage options, a convenient laundry room, and open sightlines throughout, the Dallas floor plan combines functionality, style, and comfort- perfect for modern families who value space, flexibility, and connection in their everyday living.

15. 2026-04-20
    price $311,990 1246-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1246 chars)

    The Dallas floor plan offers a spacious two-story design with 2,477 square feet of thoughtfully crafted living space, featuring 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. This versatile layout is ideal for families seeking both open gathering areas and private retreats. The main floor welcomes you with an open-concept living area that seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and family room, creating the perfect setting for entertaining or relaxing. The modern kitchen boasts a large island, generous counter space, and ample cabinetry, making meal prep and family dinners easy and enjoyable. A first-floor bedroom and full bath provide flexibility for guests or multi-generational living. Upstairs, the spacious owner's suite offers a private escape complete with a large walk-in closet and an ensuite bath featuring dual sinks and a walk-in shower. Three additional bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a versatile loft space provide plenty of room for family, hobbies, or a home office. With thoughtful storage options, a convenient laundry room, and open sightlines throughout, the Dallas floor plan combines functionality, style, and comfort- perfect for modern families who value space, flexibility, and connection in their everyday living.

16. 2026-03-17
    listed $337,990 Active 1246-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1246 chars)

    The Dallas floor plan offers a spacious two-story design with 2,477 square feet of thoughtfully crafted living space, featuring 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. This versatile layout is ideal for families seeking both open gathering areas and private retreats. The main floor welcomes you with an open-concept living area that seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and family room, creating the perfect setting for entertaining or relaxing. The modern kitchen boasts a large island, generous counter space, and ample cabinetry, making meal prep and family dinners easy and enjoyable. A first-floor bedroom and full bath provide flexibility for guests or multi-generational living. Upstairs, the spacious owner's suite offers a private escape complete with a large walk-in closet and an ensuite bath featuring dual sinks and a walk-in shower. Three additional bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a versatile loft space provide plenty of room for family, hobbies, or a home office. With thoughtful storage options, a convenient laundry room, and open sightlines throughout, the Dallas floor plan combines functionality, style, and comfort- perfect for modern families who value space, flexibility, and connection in their everyday living.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,529
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,252
• − Property taxes: −$4,620
• − Insurance: −$1,540
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,362
• − Management: −$2,362
• − Depreciation: −$8,960
• Taxable loss: −$7,568
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,816
• After-tax cash flow: $-397/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This two-story home in Pattison, TX, is in good condition with a modern floor plan and well-maintained exterior. It offers a spacious layout ideal for families and is ready for minor cosmetic updates to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property.
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve the home's appeal to potential buyers.
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Upgraded fixtures can attract more buyers and renters.
• Rental HVAC system maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system ensures comfort and reduces energy costs for renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Upgraded fixtures can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Rental HVAC system maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system ensures comfort and reduces energy costs for renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Royal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838190
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,059
• Composite: 19.55/100
• National rank: #8760
• State rank: #744 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pattison

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #876
• US rank: #15789

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Waller County · 18,767 people
• City population: 18,767
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,767
• Household income: $84,490
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 20.0

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% White 41% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.28%
• Current HPI: 204.8709
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $307,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $311,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-17 Listed $337,990 Zillow