1016 Selene Sky Dr · Brookshire, TX 77423

$295,990

6 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,408 sqft · SingleFamily · 44 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 6,408 sqft lot Garage $144/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.7/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Dallas floor plan offers a spacious two-story design with 2,477 square feet of thoughtfully crafted living space, featuring 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. This versatile layout is ideal for families seeking both open gathering areas and private retreats. The main floor welcomes you with an open-concept living area that seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and family room, creating the perfect setting for entertaining or relaxing. The modern kitchen boasts a large island, generous counter space, and ample cabinetry, making meal prep and family dinners easy and enjoyable. A first-floor bedroom and full bath provide flexibility for guests or multi-generational living. Upstairs, the spacious owner's suite offers a private escape complete with a large walk-in closet and an ensuite bath featuring dual sinks and a walk-in shower. Three additional bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a versatile loft space provide plenty of room for family, hobbies, or a home office. With thoughtful storage options, a convenient laundry room, and open sightlines throughout, the Dallas floor plan combines functionality, style, and comfort- perfect for modern families who value space, flexibility, and connection in their everyday living.

Key facts

• Community with pool
• Covered patio
• Sprinkler system

Tags

• GOURMET ISLAND KITCHEN
• COVERED PATIO
• SPRINKLER SYSTEM
• COMMUNITY WITH POOL
• COMMUNITY WITH PLAYGROUND

🏗️ New construction. The $295,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $380,790.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $296k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-771 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (9.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $254k (14.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $254k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#960 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Royal ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #744 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Royal El (math 27% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 762 students, 78% FRL); Royal J H (math 22% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 593 students, 73% FRL); Royal H S (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 842 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools at 74% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1404 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($287k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $42k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $253,709 (14.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.68%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $380,790
• List price: $295,990
• Delta: -19.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1032 Selene Sky Dr	0.04mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,733 (+14%)	4mo	$377,990	$138	65
1008 Sunlit Cir	0.37mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,722 (+13%)	4mo	$375,040	$138	51
1060 Sunlit Cir	0.46mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,722 (+13%)	4mo	$380,790	$140	46
1116 Sunlit Cir	0.51mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,722 (+13%)	5mo	$380,790	$140	43
1096 Sunlit Cir	0.53mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,722 (+13%)	6mo	$299,990	$110	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -35.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-118,134
• Equity at exit: $56,777

10-year hold

• IRR: -71.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.82×
• Total profit: $-194,340
• Equity at exit: $32,924

Cash invested: $106,621 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 29 active · 6 under contract
• Months of supply: 24.9 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $355,000 ($138/sqft)
• Median days on market: 92 d
• This list price: 10% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +14.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77423

• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1404
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,537 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,997
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$476 /mo · $5,712/yr
• Insurance: −$159
• HOA: −$144
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$533
• Net cashflow: $-771

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,513

Max offer price $269,188

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-508	-5% $-640	+0% $-771	+5% $-903	+10% $-1,034
Rent	-10% $-972	-5% $-871	+0% $-771	+5% $-671	+10% $-571
Rate	-1.0pp $-579	-0.5pp $-674	base $-771	+0.5pp $-870	+1.0pp $-970

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $95,198
• Closing costs: $11,424
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Municipal Utility District disclosure
• HOA & community: Sunterra Property Owners AssociationAnnual association feeCommunity pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage2 garage spaces
• Security: Prewired for securitySmoke detectors
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyNew construction (2026)Slab foundationComposition roofBuilt by D.R. Horton
• Construction: Brick and cement siding constructionNew construction
• Exterior features: Fenced backyardSprinkler/irrigation systemPorchPrivate yardSubdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalGas ovenGas rangeMicrowaveWalk-in pantryKitchen island
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 7
• Flooring: CarpetPlankVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central electric air conditioningHVAC included
• Interior features: Kitchen islandKitchen/family room comboBath in primary bedroomWalk-in pantryKitchen/dining comboLiving/dining roomProgrammable thermostatLow emissivity windowsVentilation for improved indoor air quality
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupTankless water heater

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   pricedays on market $295,990 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $307,990 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $307,990 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $307,990 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $307,990 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $307,990 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $307,990 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $307,990 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $307,990 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $307,990 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $307,990 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $307,990 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    pricedays on market $307,990 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $324,990 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $324,990 Active 25 DOM
16. 2026-09-02
    days on market $324,990 Active 23 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $324,990 Active 21 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $324,990 Active 19 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $324,990 Active 18 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $324,990 Active 17 DOM
21. 2026-08-26
    days on market $324,990 Active 16 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $324,990 Active 15 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $324,990 Active 14 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $324,990 Active 13 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $324,990 Active 12 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $324,990 Active 11 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $324,990 Active 10 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $324,990 Active 9 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    price $324,990 Active 8 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $337,990 Active 8 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $337,990 Active 7 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $337,990 Active 6 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $337,990 Active 5 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $337,990 Active 4 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $337,990 Active 3 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $337,990 Active 2 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on marketlisting id $337,990 Active 1 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $337,990 Active 101 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $337,990 Active 100 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $337,990 Active 99 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $337,990 Active 97 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $337,990 Active 96 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $337,990 Active 95 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    pricedays on market $337,990 Active 94 DOM
45. 2026-06-18
    days on market $307,990 Active 93 DOM

    Show marketing remark (1246 chars)

    The Dallas floor plan offers a spacious two-story design with 2,477 square feet of thoughtfully crafted living space, featuring 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. This versatile layout is ideal for families seeking both open gathering areas and private retreats. The main floor welcomes you with an open-concept living area that seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and family room, creating the perfect setting for entertaining or relaxing. The modern kitchen boasts a large island, generous counter space, and ample cabinetry, making meal prep and family dinners easy and enjoyable. A first-floor bedroom and full bath provide flexibility for guests or multi-generational living. Upstairs, the spacious owner's suite offers a private escape complete with a large walk-in closet and an ensuite bath featuring dual sinks and a walk-in shower. Three additional bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a versatile loft space provide plenty of room for family, hobbies, or a home office. With thoughtful storage options, a convenient laundry room, and open sightlines throughout, the Dallas floor plan combines functionality, style, and comfort- perfect for modern families who value space, flexibility, and connection in their everyday living.

46. 2026-06-17
    days on market $307,990 Active 92 DOM
47. 2026-06-16
    days on market $307,990 Active 91 DOM
48. 2026-06-15
    days on market $307,990 Active 90 DOM
49. 2026-06-13
    days on market $307,990 Active 88 DOM
50. 2026-06-10
    days on market $307,990 Active 84 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,445
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,330
• − Property taxes: −$5,712
• − Insurance: −$1,904
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,436
• − Management: −$2,436
• − HOA: −$1,728
• − Depreciation: −$11,078
• Taxable loss: −$16,178
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,883
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,372/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $12,040–$36,120 screening

This two-story home in Pattison, TX, is in good condition with a modern floor plan and well-maintained exterior. It offers a spacious layout ideal for families and is ready for minor cosmetic updates to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Upgraded fixtures can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Rental HVAC system maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system ensures comfort and reduces energy costs for renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 22/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Royal El F TX #3,247/4,322 Nat'l #31,549/41,679 Middle Royal J H F TX #1,341/1,662 Nat'l #11,105/14,009 High Royal H S F TX #1,377/1,632 Nat'l #13,899/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Royal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838190
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,059
• Composite: 19.55/100
• National rank: #8760
• State rank: #744 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Brookshire

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #960
• US rank: #17059

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Waller County · 60,772 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,767
• Household income: $84,490
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% White 41% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.28%
• Current HPI: 204.8709
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Municipal Utility District disclosure
• HOA & community: Sunterra Property Owners AssociationAnnual association feeCommunity pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage2 garage spaces
• Security: Prewired for securitySmoke detectors
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyNew construction (2026)Slab foundationComposition roofBuilt by D.R. Horton
• Construction: Brick and cement siding constructionNew construction
• Exterior features: Fenced backyardSprinkler/irrigation systemPorchPrivate yardSubdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalGas ovenGas rangeMicrowaveWalk-in pantryKitchen island
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 7
• Flooring: CarpetPlankVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central electric air conditioningHVAC included
• Interior features: Kitchen islandKitchen/family room comboBath in primary bedroomWalk-in pantryKitchen/dining comboLiving/dining roomProgrammable thermostatLow emissivity windowsVentilation for improved indoor air quality
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupTankless water heater

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-08-10 Listed $337,990 HARMLS
• 2026-08-02 Price Changed $337,990 Zillow
• 2026-08-02 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-06-18 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $307,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $311,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-17 Listed $337,990 Zillow