3115 12th Ave

Council Bluffs, IA 51501

$157,900D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,036 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Active · 76 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,264/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$828
• Tax + insurance: −$237
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $-66/mo
• Annual: $-798/yr
• Cap rate: 5.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.80%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $44,212

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $158k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-66 ($-798/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $146k (7.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (20.0% below list).
• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $126k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#368 in IA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: employment C-, amenities D, crime D-.
• Council Bluffs Community School District (urban): math 52% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #272 of 289 in IA (top 94%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 140 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 679 units permitted in Pottawattamie County in 2024 (566 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pottawattamie County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $158k implies a 351% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.3% in Council Bluffs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.