7963 Rocky Hill Rd

Onyx, CA 93255

$45,000B+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 560 sqft · Built 1962 · Manufactured · Active · 200 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,268/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax + insurance: −$184
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $582/mo
• Annual: $6,987/yr
• Cap rate: 25.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 67.38%
• DSCR: 4.00
• 1% rule: 2.82%
• Cash to close: $12,600

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $45k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $582 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• It's been on market 200 days — a 12% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $40k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($311 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (6.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,132 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A, cost of living B; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• South Fork Union (rural): math 25% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #1,016 of 1,400 in CA (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $45k implies a 350% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (6.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 9→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 200 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.