7963 Rocky Hill Rd · Onyx, CA 93255

$45,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 560 sqft · Manufactured public records · 200 Days on market

Built 1962 0.25 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This mobile needs work but it is a blank slate that you can form to your liking. This home is listed for sale as is. bring all offers!

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• Built 1962
• Listed 199 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $582 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $40k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,132 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A, cost of living B; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• South Fork Union (rural): math 25% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #1,016 of 1,400 in CA (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($311 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (6.7% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (6.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 200 days — a 12% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $45k implies a 350% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 9→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $39,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 200 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.82% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 67.38%
• DSCR: 4.00
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.73% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 64.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.14×
• Total profit: $52,141
• Equity at exit: $30,392

10-year hold

• IRR: 61.0%
• Equity multiple: 10.85×
• Total profit: $124,071
• Equity at exit: $57,028

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93255

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 32
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,268 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $479/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $582

Break-even live

Break-even rent $531

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $45,000 Active 200 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $45,000 Active 199 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $45,000 Active 198 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $45,000 Active 197 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $45,000 Active 196 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $45,000 Active 194 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $45,000 Active 193 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $45,000 Active 191 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $45,000 Active 190 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $45,000 Active 189 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $45,000 Active 188 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $45,000 Active 186 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $45,000 Active 185 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $45,000 Active 184 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $45,000 Active 183 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $45,000 Active 182 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $45,000 Active 181 DOM
18. 2026-03-23
    status Active 134-char remark

    Show marketing remark (134 chars)

    This mobile needs work but it is a blank slate that you can form to your liking. This home is listed for sale as is. bring all offers!

19. 2026-01-02
    status Pending 134-char remark

    Show marketing remark (134 chars)

    This mobile needs work but it is a blank slate that you can form to your liking. This home is listed for sale as is. bring all offers!

20. 2025-09-11
    listed $45,000 Active 134-char remark

    Show marketing remark (134 chars)

    This mobile needs work but it is a blank slate that you can form to your liking. This home is listed for sale as is. bring all offers!

21. 2006-07-26
    soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $479 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $479 · $40/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 9 d/yr ≥96°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 15 unhealthy d/yr today · 17 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,222
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$479
• − Insurance: −$1,727
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,218
• − Management: −$1,218
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $6,750
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,620
• After-tax cash flow: $5,367/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Fork Union
• NCES district ID: 0637470
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $32,532
• Composite: 29.31/100
• National rank: #11836
• State rank: #1016 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Onyx

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #1132
• US rank: #25709

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime F Employment C- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Onyx, CA
• Population (ZIP): 739

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 14% Asian 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 6%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 15%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.73%
• Current HPI: 565.4615
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+350.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Relisted — SSMLS
• 2026-01-02 Pending — SSMLS
• 2025-09-11 Listed $45,000 SSMLS
• 2006-07-26 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $479 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.