164 W Walnut Hill Rd

Mount Gay-Shamrock, WV 25601

$14,900D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,384 sqft · Built 1930 · SingleFamily · Pending · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,209/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$78
• Tax + insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $865/mo
• Annual: $10,382/yr
• Cap rate: 75.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 248.84%
• DSCR: 12.07
• 1% rule: 8.12%
• Cash to close: $4,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $15k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $865 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $15k).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $643 of equity ($103 loan paydown + $540 appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Logan County Schools (rural): math 18% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #48 of 55 in WV (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Logan Elementary School (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #130 of 377 statewide, top 39%, 230 students, 0% FRL); Logan Middle School (math 17% / reading 30%, grade F, #91 of 109 statewide, top 85%, 590 students, 0% FRL); Logan Senior High School (math 8% / reading 32%, grade F, #101 of 110 statewide, top 94%, 580 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 49% district-wide (49 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Logan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Logan County population projected at -35% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (3.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.