164 W Walnut Hill Rd · Mount Gay-Shamrock, WV 25601

$14,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,384 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1930 2,178 sqft lot ↓ 26% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Key facts

• 2,178 sq ft lot
• Built 1930
• Listed 11 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Parking pad
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; 1 story
• Construction: Frame and plaster construction; Composition/shingle roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Fenced yard; Outbuilding

Interior

• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Has heating
• Interior features: Insulated windows; 8 total rooms; No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $15k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $865 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $15k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Logan County Schools (rural): math 18% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #48 of 55 in WV (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Logan Elementary School (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #130 of 377 statewide, top 39%, 230 students, 0% FRL); Logan Middle School (math 17% / reading 30%, grade F, #91 of 109 statewide, top 85%, 590 students, 0% FRL); Logan Senior High School (math 8% / reading 32%, grade F, #101 of 110 statewide, top 94%, 580 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 49% district-wide (49 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Logan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $643 of equity ($103 loan paydown + $540 appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Logan County population projected at -35% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $14,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 8.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 75.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 248.84%
• DSCR: 12.07
• GRM: 1.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.63% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 14.76×
• Total profit: $57,407
• Equity at exit: $7,231

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 31.33×
• Total profit: $126,554
• Equity at exit: $11,577

Cash invested: $4,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State West Virginia: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+22
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Landlord-favorable; preempted; minimal protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 25601

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 1.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,209 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$78
• Tax from tax record: −$6 /mo · $71/yr
• Insurance: −$6
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $865

Break-even live

Break-even rent $114

Max offer price $14,900

Occupancy floor 23%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $874	-5% $869	+0% $865	+5% $861	+10% $857
Rent	-10% $770	-5% $817	+0% $865	+5% $913	+10% $961
Rate	-1.0pp $873	-0.5pp $869	base $865	+0.5pp $861	+1.0pp $857

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $3,725
• Closing costs: $447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-04
   listed $14,900 Active
3. 2026-02-10
   price $30,500
4. 2026-01-23
   price $36,100
5. 2026-01-06
   listed $41,400 Active
6. 1980-06-19
   soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WV · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $71 · $6/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $88 · $7/mo
• Expected delta: +$17/yr (+$1/mo · 23.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,513
• − Mortgage interest: −$835
• − Property taxes: −$71
• − Insurance: −$74
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,161
• − Management: −$1,161
• − Depreciation: −$433
• Taxable income: $10,777
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,586
• After-tax cash flow: $7,795/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Logan County Schools
• NCES district ID: 5400690
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $36,127
• Composite: 20.68/100
• National rank: #8531
• State rank: #48 of 55 in WV

Livability — Mount Gay-Shamrock

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 6,241
• Population (ZIP): 5,007

Population outlook (Logan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 30,218 people
• By 2030: 27,848 · -7.8%
• By 2040: 23,262 · -23.0%
• By 2050: 19,582 · -35.2%
• By 2075: 12,739 · -57.8%
• By 2100: 7,787 · -74.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Black 6% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Logan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.7) · D 16.1% · R 82.8% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -55.9pp toward R · 2008: -10.8pp · 2024: -66.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.7 2020: R+63.0 2016: R+63.2 2012: R+39.7 2008: R+10.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.63%
• Current HPI: 135.6741
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-25.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — KVBOR
• 2026-05-04 Listed $14,900 KVBOR
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $30,500 KVBOR
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $36,100 KVBOR
• 2026-01-06 Listed $41,400 KVBOR
• 1980-06-19 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $71 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.