561 Fm 611 W

Rotan, TX 79546

$138,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,363 sqft · Built 1965 · SingleFamily · Pending · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,156/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$724
• Tax + insurance: −$239
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$243
• Net cashflow: $-50/mo
• Annual: $-598/yr
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.55%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $38,640

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $138k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-50 ($-598/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $129k (6.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $116k (16.2% below list).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $116k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.4%/yr); year-one equity from $954 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,123 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, employment D.
• Rotan ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #405 of 1,141 in TX (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP.
• Fisher County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.