561 Fm 611 W · Rotan, TX 79546

$138,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,363 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1965 2.71 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This country homestead has everything you need to get started with your new place. The home will fit the whole family, with 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, spacious living room with woodburning fireplace and attractive brick hearth, adjacent dining area and kitchen with built-in appliances. 2x attached garage, dedicated utility room with washer and dryer connections and plenty of extra space for storage, freezers, etc. Includes a 2x detached metal carport, a couple of storage sheds, small workshop and a storm cellar, too! With 2.7 acres, you'll have plenty of room to park your toys, build a new barn, have a garden, you name it!

Key facts

• Built-in appliances
• Brick hearth
• Small workshop

Tags

• WOODBURNING FIREPLACE
• BRICK HEARTH
• BUILT-IN APPLIANCES
• DETACHED METAL CARPORT
• STORAGE SHEDS
• SMALL WORKSHOP

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No known restrictions; Will not subdivide
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport; Garage (attached, 2 spaces, 20' wide x 22' long, garage faces front, inside entrance); 2 carport spaces; 4 covered spaces; RV access/parking; Gravel and unpaved parking areas
• Utilities: City water; Individual water meter; Septic; Co-op electric; Electricity connected; All-weather road and asphalt access; Outside city limits; Unincorporated area
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; One-level
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built in 1965; Preowned
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Covered porches; RV/boat parking; Stable/barn; Storage; Storm cellar; Few trees; Irregular lot; Approximately 2.7 acres; RV access/parking

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (primary bedroom on main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Built-in features; Eat-in kitchen; Paneling; One living area; One dining area; Fireplace in living room (wood burning, brick)
• Laundry & utility: Utility room with full-size washer/dryer area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $138k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-50 ($-598/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $129k (6.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $116k (16.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $116k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,123 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, employment D.
• Rotan ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #405 of 1,141 in TX (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.4%/yr); year-one equity from $954 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fisher County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $115,579 (16.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.55%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.43% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-16,208
• Equity at exit: $30,476

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-9,561
• Equity at exit: $29,645

Cash invested: $38,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79546

• Home prices YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,156 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$724
• Tax from tax record: −$182 /mo · $2,181/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$243
• Net cashflow: $-50

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,219

Max offer price $129,194

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $28	-5% $-11	+0% $-50	+5% $-89	+10% $-128
Rent	-10% $-141	-5% $-96	+0% $-50	+5% $-4	+10% $41
Rate	-1.0pp $20	-0.5pp $-15	base $-50	+0.5pp $-86	+1.0pp $-122

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,500
• Closing costs: $4,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-08
   status $138,000 Pending 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   days on market $138,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   remarks 632-char remark
4. 2026-06-03
   listed $138,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,181 · $182/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,525 · $210/mo
• Expected delta: +$345/yr (+$29/mo · 15.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,869
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,730
• − Property taxes: −$2,181
• − Insurance: −$690
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,110
• − Management: −$1,110
• − Depreciation: −$4,015
• Taxable loss: −$2,965
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$712
• After-tax cash flow: $113/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rotan ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838040
• Math proficiency: 50% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 15.00%
• Median HH income: $36,634
• Composite: 43.53/100
• National rank: #6447
• State rank: #405 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Rotan

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1123
• US rank: #19812

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,662

Population outlook (Fisher County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,732 people
• By 2030: 3,677 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 3,556 · -4.7%
• By 2050: 3,469 · -7.0%
• By 2075: 3,429 · -8.1%
• By 2100: 3,196 · -14.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 39% Two or more races 19% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Fisher

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.3) · D 18.0% · R 81.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.1pp toward R · 2008: -22.2pp · 2024: -63.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.3 2020: R+60.0 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+35.8 2008: R+22.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.43%
• Current HPI: 78.1423
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+6.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $138,000 NTREIS
• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $168,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-30 Listed $138,000 NTREIS
• 2019-06-23 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2018-12-10 Listed $130,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+8.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,181 · +8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.