16 Rulison St

West Carthage, NY 13619

$117,000B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,218 sqft · Built 1880 · SingleFamily · Pending · 108 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,358/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$614
• Tax + insurance: −$294
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $166/mo
• Annual: $1,988/yr
• Cap rate: 7.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.07%
• DSCR: 1.27
• 1% rule: 1.16%
• Cash to close: $32,760

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $117k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $166 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $117k).
• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $106k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($809 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#912 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A, cost of living A-, housing B+; Watch: employment D+, health & safety D, schools F.
• Carthage Central School District (rural): math 30% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #539 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price; built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.3% in West Carthage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.