16 Rulison St · West Carthage, NY 13619

$117,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,218 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 108 Days on market

Built 1880 2.50 ac lot Est $174k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Why rent when you can own? This home sets on 2.5 acres in the village of Carthage. This affordable home is within walking distance to downtown which has many shops and businesses. You will surely enjoy the patio and wonderful yard to explore. There is a spacious kitchen with dining area. Lots of storage in the garage. Call today for an appointment.

Key facts

• 2.5 scenic acres
• Usable acreage
• One stall barn

Tags

• 2.5 SCENIC ACRES
• ONE STALL BARN
• DETACHED GARAGE
• USABLE ACREAGE
• FUNCTIONAL STRUCTURES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $117k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $166 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $117k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.3% in West Carthage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#912 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A, cost of living A-, housing B+; Watch: employment D+, health & safety D, schools F.
• Carthage Central School District (rural): math 30% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #539 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($809 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price; built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $106,470 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.07%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $174,174
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
46 Liberty St	0.10mi	3/1.0	1,200 (-2%)	8mo	$214,900	$179	87
29 Stone St	0.29mi	3/1.5	1,320 (+8%)	2mo	$222,900	$169	68
35 Franklin St	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,316 (+8%)	13mo	$128,640	$98	62
33 N Broad St	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,105 (-9%)	4mo	$305,000	$276	60
32 Franklin St	0.32mi	3/1.0	1,400 (+15%)	7mo	$164,600	$118	55
51 Champion St	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,392 (+14%)	0mo	$215,000	$154	53
71 Champion St	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,317 (+8%)	8mo	$143,000	$109	52
43 N Broad St	0.65mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,248 (+2%)	8mo	$100,000	$80	52
11 unite 6 Liberty St	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (-13%)	9mo	$75,000	$71	51
30 High St	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,397 (+15%)	10mo	$200,000	$143	48
74 Champion St	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,312 (+8%)	12mo	$229,900	$175	47
86 1/2 Champion St	0.60mi	3/1.5	1,056 (-13%)	8mo	$141,800	$134	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.27×
• Total profit: $74,352
• Equity at exit: $105,403

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.44×
• Total profit: $210,820
• Equity at exit: $227,305

Cash invested: $32,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13619

• Home prices YoY: 26.0%
• Active inventory: 77
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,358 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$614
• Tax from tax record: −$245 /mo · $2,941/yr
• Insurance: −$49
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $166

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,149

Max offer price $117,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,250
• Closing costs: $3,510
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
719 Alexandria St Unit 719 Carthage, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$995	$0.90	44d	1	1.04mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-04-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-20
   price $117,000
3. 2025-12-22
   listed $130,000 Active
4. 2023-06-22
   historical
5. 2022-10-24
   status Active
6. 2022-10-15
   historical Continue to Show- Under Contract
7. 2022-09-07
   price $132,999
8. 2022-06-22
   listed $139,900 Active
9. 2015-09-09
   soldstatus $117,000
10. 2015-09-04
    soldstatus $117,000 350-char remark

    Show marketing remark (350 chars)

    Why rent when you can own? This home sets on 2.5 acres in the village of Carthage. This affordable home is within walking distance to downtown which has many shops and businesses. You will surely enjoy the patio and wonderful yard to explore. There is a spacious kitchen with dining area. Lots of storage in the garage. Call today for an appointment.

11. 2015-06-18
    listed $119,000 350-char remark

    Show marketing remark (350 chars)

    Why rent when you can own? This home sets on 2.5 acres in the village of Carthage. This affordable home is within walking distance to downtown which has many shops and businesses. You will surely enjoy the patio and wonderful yard to explore. There is a spacious kitchen with dining area. Lots of storage in the garage. Call today for an appointment.

12. 2014-09-03
    soldstatus $108,000
13. 2014-08-28
    soldstatus $108,000
14. 2014-06-03
    listed $110,000
15. 2011-01-07
    soldstatus $88,000
16. 2011-01-06
    soldstatus $88,000
17. 2010-07-30
    listed $94,900
18. 2002-11-20
    soldstatus $30,000
19. 2002-11-20
    soldstatus $33,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,941 · $245/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,941 · $245/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,299
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,554
• − Property taxes: −$2,941
• − Insurance: −$585
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,304
• − Management: −$1,304
• − Depreciation: −$3,404
• Taxable income: $208
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$50
• After-tax cash flow: $1,938/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carthage Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3606630
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,450
• Composite: 32.63/100
• National rank: #5668
• State rank: #539 of 590 in NY

Livability — West Carthage

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #912
• US rank: #17830

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment D+ Housing B+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Carthage, NY
• County: Jefferson County · 47,417 people
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• Population (ZIP): 10,578
• Household income: $63,120
• Rent vs Own: 43.7% rent · 56.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 379.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Romanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 84.02%
• Current HPI: 406.9439
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+290.0% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $117,000 CNYIS
• 2025-12-22 Listed $130,000 CNYIS
• 2023-06-22 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2022-10-24 Relisted — CNYIS
• 2022-10-15 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2022-09-07 Price Changed $132,999 CNYIS
• 2022-06-22 Listed $139,900 CNYIS
• 2015-09-09 Sold (Public Records) $117,000 Public Records
• 2015-09-04 Sold (MLS) $117,000 CNYIS
• 2015-06-18 Listed $119,000 CNYIS
• 2014-09-03 Sold (Public Records) $108,000 Public Records
• 2014-08-28 Sold (MLS) $108,000 CNYIS
• 2014-06-03 Listed $110,000 CNYIS
• 2011-01-07 Sold (Public Records) $88,000 Public Records
• 2011-01-06 Sold (MLS) $88,000 CNYIS
• 2010-07-30 Listed $94,900 CNYIS
• 2002-11-20 Sold (Public Records) $33,500 Public Records
• 2002-11-20 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,941 · -1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.