21884 Ronald Dr

Lexington Park, MD 20653

$190,000C

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,120 sqft · Built 1989 · Townhouse · Active · 102 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,149/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$191
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $510/mo
• Annual: $6,116/yr
• Cap rate: 9.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.50%
• DSCR: 1.51
• 1% rule: 1.13%
• Cash to close: $53,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $510 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($173k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $173k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#331 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• St. Mary'S County Public Schools (rural): math 23% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #8 of 24 in MD (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Green Holly Elementary School (math 17% / reading 12%, grade F, #477 of 860 statewide, top 59%, 492 students, 63% FRL); Esperanza Middle (math 18% / reading 41%, grade F, #67 of 225 statewide, top 32%, 875 students, 41% FRL); Great Mills High (math 42% / reading 55%, grade D, #111 of 222 statewide, top 50%, 1,779 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 28% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 93 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 265 units permitted in St. Mary's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Mary's County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $190k implies a 90% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 4.0% in Lexington Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.