21884 Ronald Dr · Lexington Park, MD 20653

$190,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,120 sqft · Townhouse public records · 101 Days on market

Built 1989 2,000 sqft lot $170/sqft · 40% above area Est $136k · 40% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.6/30.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Appreciation +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great investment opportunity, currently tenant occupied. Need 24 hours notice to show. Home being sold AS-IS. HVAC new March 26. Location close to Navy Base, shopping , dining, theater, boating & more. Three bedrooms , 2 baths & linen closet on 2nd level . (Occupied w/ Tenants personal items/furnishings. Lower level has laundry, kitchen, storage closet, living room w/ slider to rear yard. Assigned parking 2 spaces marked (84)

Key facts

• Built 1989
• Listed 100 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $510 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $173k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 4.0% in Lexington Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#331 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• St. Mary'S County Public Schools (rural): math 23% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #8 of 24 in MD (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Green Holly Elementary School (math 17% / reading 12%, grade F, #477 of 860 statewide, top 59%, 492 students, 63% FRL); Esperanza Middle (math 18% / reading 41%, grade F, #67 of 225 statewide, top 32%, 875 students, 41% FRL); Great Mills High (math 42% / reading 55%, grade D, #111 of 222 statewide, top 50%, 1,779 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 28% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 94 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 265 units permitted in St. Mary's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Mary's County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($173k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $190k implies a 90% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,900 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.50%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $135,695
• List price: $190,000
• Delta: 40.02%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
46351 Columbus Dr #207	0.58mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,114 (-0%)	2mo	$228,145	$205	65
46359 Columbus Dr	0.61mi	3/1.5	1,164 (+4%)	7mo	$215,000	$185	59
46315 Creeping Primrose Ln Unit B	0.48mi	3/2.5	1,220 (+9%)	2mo	$294,000	$241	57
22087 Spring Valley Dr	0.34mi	3/1.5	1,280 (+14%)	6mo	$160,000	$125	55
46345 Creeping Primrose Ln Unit G	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,220 (+9%)	2mo	$283,000	$232	55
46349 Columbus Dr	0.57mi	3/1.5	990 (-12%)	2mo	$149,000	$151	53
21805 Primrose Willow Ln Unit D	0.47mi	3/2.5	1,220 (+9%)	10mo	$295,000	$242	51
46289 Mako Way	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,200 (+7%)	9mo	$260,000	$217	50
21825 Primrose Willow Ln Unit C	0.45mi	3/2.5	1,220 (+9%)	12mo	$290,000	$238	50
21810 Primrose Willow Ln Unit D	0.48mi	3/2.5	1,220 (+9%)	12mo	$290,000	$238	49
46345 Creeping Primrose Ln Unit A	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,220 (+9%)	12mo	$300,000	$246	47
46281 Mako Way	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,280 (+14%)	7mo	$239,400	$187	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.49% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-3,665
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $17,769
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20653

• Home prices YoY: -1.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,149 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$112 /mo · $1,346/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $510

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,503

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $617	-5% $563	+0% $510	+5% $456	+10% $402
Rent	-10% $340	-5% $425	+0% $510	+5% $595	+10% $679
Rate	-1.0pp $605	-0.5pp $558	base $510	+0.5pp $460	+1.0pp $410

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $190,000 Active 101 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $190,000 Active 99 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $190,000 Active 98 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $190,000 Active 97 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $190,000 Active 96 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $190,000 Active 95 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $190,000 Active 93 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $190,000 Active 92 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $190,000 Active 89 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $190,000 Active 88 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $190,000 Active 87 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $190,000 Active 84 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $190,000 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $190,000 Active 81 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $190,000 Active 80 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $190,000 Active 79 DOM
17. 2026-04-15
    price $190,000 441-char remark

    Show marketing remark (441 chars)

    Great investment opportunity, currently tenant occupied. Need 24 hours notice to show. Home being sold AS-IS. HVAC new March 26. Location close to Navy Base, shopping , dining, theater, boating & more. Three bedrooms , 2 baths & linen closet on 2nd level . (Occupied w/ Tenants personal items/furnishings. Lower level has laundry, kitchen, storage closet, living room w/ slider to rear yard. Assigned parking 2 spaces marked (84)

18. 2026-03-13
    listed $205,000 Active 441-char remark

    Show marketing remark (441 chars)

    Great investment opportunity, currently tenant occupied. Need 24 hours notice to show. Home being sold AS-IS. HVAC new March 26. Location close to Navy Base, shopping , dining, theater, boating & more. Three bedrooms , 2 baths & linen closet on 2nd level . (Occupied w/ Tenants personal items/furnishings. Lower level has laundry, kitchen, storage closet, living room w/ slider to rear yard. Assigned parking 2 spaces marked (84)

19. 2026-02-15
    historical $205,000 441-char remark

    Show marketing remark (441 chars)

    Great investment opportunity, currently tenant occupied. Need 24 hours notice to show. Home being sold AS-IS. HVAC new March 26. Location close to Navy Base, shopping , dining, theater, boating & more. Three bedrooms , 2 baths & linen closet on 2nd level . (Occupied w/ Tenants personal items/furnishings. Lower level has laundry, kitchen, storage closet, living room w/ slider to rear yard. Assigned parking 2 spaces marked (84)

20. 2019-11-12
    soldstatus $100,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,346 · $112/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,708 · $142/mo
• Expected delta: +$363/yr (+$30/mo · 27.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 68% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,782
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$1,346
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,063
• − Management: −$2,063
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable income: $3,191
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$766
• After-tax cash flow: $5,350/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Mary'S County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400600
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $83,240
• Composite: 29.74/100
• National rank: #6444
• State rank: #8 of 24 in MD

Livability — Lexington Park

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #331
• US rank: #17418

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime F Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lexington Park, MD
• County: Saint Marys County · 48,152 people
• City population: 26,852
• Metro: California-Lexington Park, MD
• Population (ZIP): 26,852
• Household income: $103,048
• Rent vs Own: 42.6% rent · 57.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1571.0

Population outlook (St. Mary's County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,125 people
• By 2030: 128,374 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 137,305 · +11.5%
• By 2050: 143,065 · +16.2%
• By 2075: 153,408 · +24.6%
• By 2100: 151,790 · +23.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Black 28% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Mary's

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.2% · R 57.4% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -12.8pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+16.1 2008: R+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.67%
• Current HPI: 256.5435
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.49%
• Metro: California-Lexington Park, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+90.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $190,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $205,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-15 Coming Soon $205,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-11-12 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,346 · +7.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.