10530 Lookout Ln

Brownsburg, IN 46234

$305,000D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,295 sqft · Built 2004 · SingleFamily · Pending · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,427/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax + insurance: −$400
• HOA: −$48
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$510
• Net cashflow: $-130/mo
• Annual: $-1,557/yr
• Cap rate: 5.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.82%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $85,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $305k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-130 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $282k (7.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (20.4% below list).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $243k (20.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#61 in IN, #4,105 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Avon Community School Corporation (suburban): math 51% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #32 of 301 in IN (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: River Birch Elementary School (math 64% / reading 48%, grade C+, #183 of 994 statewide, top 19%, 655 students, 39% FRL); Avon Middle School North (math 45% / reading 55%, grade C, #48 of 330 statewide, top 15%, 854 students, 42% FRL); Avon High School (math 44% / reading 76%, grade C+, #46 of 369 statewide, top 13%, 3,348 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 40% FRL vs 20% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.6%/yr); 66 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,294 units permitted in Hendricks County in 2024 (18 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hendricks County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.8% in Brownsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.