17413 Hoskinson Rd

Poolesville, MD 20837

$325,000D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,317 sqft · Built 1977 · Townhouse · Pending · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,800/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax + insurance: −$403
• HOA: −$94
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$588
• Net cashflow: $11/mo
• Annual: $133/yr
• Cap rate: 6.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.15%
• DSCR: 1.01
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $91,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $325k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $11 ($133/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $280k (13.8% below list).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($320k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $280k (13.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#169 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F, cost of living F.
• Montgomery County Public Schools (suburban): math 27% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #3 of 24 in MD (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,880 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (2,054 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $325k implies a 491% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 1.0% in Poolesville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.