978 Valley River St

Brownsville, TX 78520

$195,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,030 sqft · Built 2015 · SingleFamily · Pending · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,586/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax + insurance: −$301
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$333
• Net cashflow: $-70/mo
• Annual: $-842/yr
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.54%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $54,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-70 ($-842/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $183k (6.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (18.6% below list).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($192k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $159k (18.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#62 in TX, #2,311 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, crime D-, employment F.
• Brownsville ISD (urban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #710 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Garden Park El (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 398 students, 99% FRL); Stell Middle (math 12% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,466 of 1,662 statewide, top 89%, 781 students, 96% FRL); Pace Early College H S (math 32% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 1,788 students, 92% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.4%/yr); 348 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 41% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.