978 Valley River St · Brownsville, TX 78520

$195,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,030 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 2015 6,500 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A beautiful new construction home that sits on a Resaca lot and in a new upcoming neighborhood. This home has a lot to offer starting with the lovely front porch area, plus a side paved area that would be great for outdoor barbecue's. The interior features spray foam Insulation, Energy Star Certified, Open Floor Concept, carpet in all 3 bedrooms, Ceramic Tile Flooring on the rest of the home and Modern Kitchen Design. This home is located near schools, park and shopping.

Key facts

• Tile flooring
• Fenced backyard
• 6,500 sq ft lot

Tags

• TILE FLOORING
• FENCED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Brick veneer and wood siding; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Lot in French River subdivision

Interior

• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating
• Interior features: Electric water heater; Tile flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-70 ($-842/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $183k (6.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (18.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $159k (18.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#62 in TX, #2,311 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, crime D-, employment F.
• Brownsville ISD (urban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #710 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Garden Park El (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 398 students, 99% FRL); Stell Middle (math 12% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,466 of 1,662 statewide, top 89%, 781 students, 96% FRL); Pace Early College H S (math 32% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 1,788 students, 92% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.4%/yr); 348 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 41% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($192k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,649 (18.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.54%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-27,672
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $8,348
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78520

• Home prices YoY: -19.8%
• Rents YoY: 11.4%
• Active inventory: 348
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,586 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$220 /mo · $2,635/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$333
• Net cashflow: $-70

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,675

Max offer price $182,610

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $40	-5% $-15	+0% $-70	+5% $-125	+10% $-181
Rent	-10% $-195	-5% $-133	+0% $-70	+5% $-7	+10% $55
Rate	-1.0pp $28	-0.5pp $-21	base $-70	+0.5pp $-121	+1.0pp $-172

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3055 El Paso Rd Unit H-1 Brownsville, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$1,050	$1.17	45d	1	0.08mi
42 Fairway Dr Brownsville, TX	2.0	2.0	1300	$2,500	$1.92	23d	1	0.29mi
11 Country Club Rd Brownsville, TX	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	23d	1	0.46mi
10 Country Club Rd Unit A Brownsville, TX	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	45d	1	0.47mi
15 Sunnyside Ln Brownsville, TX	4.0	2.0	1436	$2,000	$1.39	15d	1	0.54mi
402 Champions Dr Brownsville, TX	2.0	1.5	814	$1,300	$1.60	23d	1	0.56mi
158 Garden St Brownsville, TX	2.0	1.0	868	$900	$1.04	45d	1	0.60mi
142 Country Club Rd Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.5	1460	$1,800	$1.23	45d	1	0.65mi
2100 Laredo Rd Brownsville, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	976	$1,540	$1.58	15d	6	0.69mi
1150 Quail Hollow Dr Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.5	1333	$1,950	$1.46	23d	1	0.70mi
2393 McAllen Rd Unit D1-7 Brownsville, TX	2.0	1.5	1040	$1,400	$1.35	23d	1	0.75mi
2901 Central Blvd Unit 202 Brownsville, TX	2.0	2.0	1176	$1,400	$1.19	23d	1	0.81mi
714 Continental Dr #3 Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.5	1482	$2,400	$1.62	45d	1	0.85mi
234 Emerald Ln Lot 4 Brownsville, TX	4.0	2.0	1170	$1,850	$1.58	15d	1	1.02mi
234 Emerald Ln Lot 4 Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1170	$1,850	$1.58	23d	1	1.02mi
34 W Hawthorne Ave Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	940	$1,400	$1.49	45d	1	1.07mi
424 Gilson Rd Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1399	$1,500	$1.07	45d	1	1.18mi
1904 Central Blvd Brownsville, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1046	$1,035	$0.99	45d	9	1.18mi
401 Boca Chica Blvd Unit 505 Brownsville, TX	2.0	1.5	1152	$1,200	$1.04	45d	1	1.19mi
460 Gilson Rd Unit 2 Brownsville, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$875	$1.03	23d	1	1.21mi
2425 Barnard Rd Brownsville, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	886	$1,165	$1.31	15d	12	1.23mi
2425 Barnard Rd Unit A-13 Brownsville, TX	2.0	2.0	1137	$1,250	$1.10	45d	1	1.23mi
2425 Barnard Rd Unit ujnit 1-A Brownsville, TX	3.0	1.5	1300	$1,600	$1.23	45d	1	1.23mi
375 Media Luna Rd Brownsville, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	940	$1,404	$1.49	15d	2	1.28mi
184 Stars Ave Unit 7 Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,900	$1.31	23d	1	1.31mi
2394 El Arca Dr Brownsville, TX	3.0	1.0	968	$1,300	$1.34	15d	1	1.35mi
3513 Hidalgo Cir Brownsville, TX	2.0	2.5	1289	$1,750	$1.36	15d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $195,000 Pending 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   days on market $195,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $195,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $195,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $195,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $195,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-05-30
   days on market $195,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-05-19
   listed $195,000 Active
9. 2016-11-09
   soldstatus 475-char remark

   Show marketing remark (475 chars)

   A beautiful new construction home that sits on a Resaca lot and in a new upcoming neighborhood. This home has a lot to offer starting with the lovely front porch area, plus a side paved area that would be great for outdoor barbecue's. The interior features spray foam Insulation, Energy Star Certified, Open Floor Concept, carpet in all 3 bedrooms, Ceramic Tile Flooring on the rest of the home and Modern Kitchen Design. This home is located near schools, park and shopping.

10. 2015-12-18
    listed $93,000 475-char remark

    Show marketing remark (475 chars)

    A beautiful new construction home that sits on a Resaca lot and in a new upcoming neighborhood. This home has a lot to offer starting with the lovely front porch area, plus a side paved area that would be great for outdoor barbecue's. The interior features spray foam Insulation, Energy Star Certified, Open Floor Concept, carpet in all 3 bedrooms, Ceramic Tile Flooring on the rest of the home and Modern Kitchen Design. This home is located near schools, park and shopping.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,635 · $220/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,568 · $297/mo
• Expected delta: +$933/yr (+$78/mo · 35.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,038
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$2,635
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,523
• − Management: −$1,523
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$4,214
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,011
• After-tax cash flow: $170/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brownsville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811680
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $30,490
• Composite: 21.8/100
• National rank: #8249
• State rank: #710 of 826 in TX

Livability — Brownsville

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #62
• US rank: #2311

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brownsville, TX
• County: Cameron County · 310,734 people
• City population: 212,132
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• Population (ZIP): 64,740
• Household income: $50,116
• Rent vs Own: 39.8% rent · 60.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1800.0

Population outlook (Cameron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 441,603 people
• By 2030: 448,113 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 456,385 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 456,294 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 423,851 · -4.0%
• By 2100: 342,787 · -22.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 93% Two or more races 44% White 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 88%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada
• Languages at home: 18% English-only · Spanish 82%

Political lean MEDSL · Cameron

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.8) · D 46.7% · R 52.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.8pp · 2024: -5.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.8 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+32.5 2012: D+32.4 2008: D+28.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -52.91%
• Current HPI: 214.4335
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.41%
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+109.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $195,000 RGVMLS
• 2016-11-09 Sold (MLS) — RGVMLS
• 2015-12-18 Listed $93,000 RGVMLS

Property tax history

+19.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,635 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.