2995 Prospect Ave #16

Helena, MT 59602

$22,999D+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 784 sqft · Built 1979 · Manufactured · Pending · 193 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,705/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$121
• Tax + insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$358
• Net cashflow: $1,188/mo
• Annual: $14,254/yr
• Cap rate: 68.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 221.35%
• DSCR: 10.85
• 1% rule: 7.41%
• Cash to close: $6,440

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $23k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $23k).
• It's been on market 193 days — a 12% lower offer ($20k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $20k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $159 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $690 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#6 in MT, #1,389 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Helena H S (town): math 34% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #42 of 116 in MT (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 195 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 456 units permitted in Lewis and Clark County in 2024 (207 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lewis and Clark County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (43%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 68.3% vs local median 2.6% in Helena — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 193 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.