2995 Prospect Ave #16 · Helena, MT 59602

$22,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 784 sqft · Manufactured · 193 Days on market

Built 1979 ↓ 43% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Storage shed
• Mature landscaping
• Built 1979

Tags

• MATURE LANDSCAPING
• STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land is leased

Exterior

• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); Residential property
• Construction: Foundation: see remarks
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $23k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $23k).
• Recommended offer: $20k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 68.3% vs local median 2.6% in Helena — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#6 in MT, #1,389 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Helena H S (town): math 34% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #42 of 116 in MT (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 195 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 456 units permitted in Lewis and Clark County in 2024 (207 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $159 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $690 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lewis and Clark County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 193 days — a 12% lower offer ($20k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (43%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $20,239 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 193 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 7.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 68.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 221.35%
• DSCR: 10.85
• GRM: 1.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $103,488
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2995 Prospect Ave #16	0.00mi	2/1.0	784 (0%)	1mo	$22,999	$29	100
2995 Prospect Ave #63	0.00mi	2/1.0	896 (+14%)	22mo	$118,000	$132	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.17×
• Total profit: $71,955
• Equity at exit: $3,429

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 25.87×
• Total profit: $160,180
• Equity at exit: $1,989

Cash invested: $6,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Montana: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; no rent control; preempted; rural-skewed market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 59602

• Active inventory: 195
• Price-to-rent: 1.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,705 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$121
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$29 /mo · $345/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$358
• Net cashflow: $1,188

Break-even live

Break-even rent $201

Max offer price $22,999

Occupancy floor 25%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $5,750
• Closing costs: $690
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2115 Missoula Ave Helena, MT	1.0–3.0	1.0	801	$1,262	$1.58	44d	11	0.77mi
300 Dorothy St Helena, MT	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	864	$1,708	$1.98	44d	1	1.00mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-19
   price $22,999
3. 2026-04-28
   price $24,999
4. 2026-03-28
   status Active
5. 2026-02-06
   historical Active Under Contract
6. 2025-12-23
   price $29,999
7. 2025-11-11
   listed $40,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 20 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,458
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,288
• − Property taxes: −$345
• − Insurance: −$115
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,637
• − Management: −$1,637
• − Depreciation: −$669
• Taxable income: $14,767
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,544
• After-tax cash flow: $10,710/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Helena H S
• NCES district ID: 3013830
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $55,565
• Composite: 38.26/100
• National rank: #4238
• State rank: #42 of 116 in MT

Livability — Helena

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #1389

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Helena, MT
• County: Lewis and Clark County · 62,482 people
• City population: 62,482
• Metro: Helena, MT
• Population (ZIP): 30,754
• Household income: $92,985
• Rent vs Own: 15.9% rent · 84.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 105.0

Population outlook (Lewis and Clark County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 72,720 people
• By 2030: 75,403 · +3.7%
• By 2040: 79,496 · +9.3%
• By 2050: 82,741 · +13.8%
• By 2075: 90,296 · +24.2%
• By 2100: 93,425 · +28.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Lithuanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lewis and Clark

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.7) · D 45.4% · R 51.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: 6.5pp · 2024: -5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.7 2020: R+3.9 2016: R+6.9 2012: R+3.6 2008: D+6.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -178.02%
• Current HPI: 243.543
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Helena, MT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology / Analytics	1	$2B

Price history

-42.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Pending — MRMLS
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $22,999 MRMLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $24,999 MRMLS
• 2026-03-28 Relisted — MRMLS
• 2026-02-06 Contingent — MRMLS
• 2025-12-23 Price Changed $29,999 MRMLS
• 2025-11-11 Listed $40,000 MRMLS