1450 US Route 2

Waterbury, VT 05676

$295,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Built 2000 · Manufactured · Pending · 90 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,466/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax + insurance: −$471
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$518
• Net cashflow: $-70/mo
• Annual: $-836/yr
• Cap rate: 6.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.21%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $82,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $295k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-70 ($-836/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $283k (4.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (16.4% below list).
• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $247k (16.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#47 in VT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A-, employment B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Zoned schools: Brookside Primary School (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #65 of 192 statewide, top 36%, 400 students, 25% FRL); Crossett Brook Middle School (math 39% / reading 61%, grade C, #7 of 26 statewide, top 24%, 288 students, 14% FRL); Harwood Union Middle/High School (math 27% / reading 67%, grade D-, #10 of 48 statewide, top 28%, 556 students, 18% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 185 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (30 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Washington County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $295k implies a 136% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.1% in Waterbury — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.