1450 US Route 2 · Waterbury, VT 05676

$295,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Manufactured public records · 90 Days on market

Built 2000 1.10 ac lot Est $270k · 9% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• ARV discount +3.3/15.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2000 MANUFACTURED HOME ON LARGE, PRIVATE NICELY LANDSCAPED LOT. DETACHED 4 CAR GARAGE WITH WORKSHOP, 220 AMP POWER HEAT. 3 DETACHED DECKS WILL CONVEY WITH PROPERTY. TO SHOW CALL L. A FOR APPT.

Key facts

• Landscaped lot
• Outdoor space
• Detached garage

Tags

• LANDSCAPED LOT
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• DETACHED GARAGE
• SHORT DRIVE TO SKI RESORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-70 ($-836/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $283k (4.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (16.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $247k (16.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.3% in Waterbury — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#47 in VT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A-, employment B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Zoned schools: Brookside Primary School (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #65 of 192 statewide, top 36%, 400 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 185 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (30 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $295k implies a 136% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $246,625 (16.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.21%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $269,568
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1450 US Route 2	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+4%)	1mo	$280,000	$208	93

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-52,216
• Equity at exit: $43,985

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-51,083
• Equity at exit: $25,506

Cash invested: $82,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05676

• Home prices YoY: -16.7%
• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,466 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax from tax record: −$293 /mo · $3,510/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$518
• Net cashflow: $-70

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,554

Max offer price $282,692

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $97	-5% $14	+0% $-70	+5% $-153	+10% $-237
Rent	-10% $-265	-5% $-167	+0% $-70	+5% $28	+10% $125
Rate	-1.0pp $79	-0.5pp $5	base $-70	+0.5pp $-146	+1.0pp $-224

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,750
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-03-03
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-03
   listed $295,000 Active
3. 2001-09-07
   soldstatus $125,000 192-char remark

   Show marketing remark (177 chars)

   2000 MANUFACTURED HOME ON LARGE PRIVATE NICELY LANDSCAPED LOT. DETACHED 4 CAR GARAGE WITH WORKSHOP. 220 AMP POWER HEAT. 3 DETACHED DECKS WILL CONVEY. TO SHOW CALL L. A FOR APPT.

4. 2001-09-07
   soldstatus $125,000 177-char remark

   Show marketing remark (177 chars)

   2000 MANUFACTURED HOME ON LARGE PRIVATE NICELY LANDSCAPED LOT. DETACHED 4 CAR GARAGE WITH WORKSHOP. 220 AMP POWER HEAT. 3 DETACHED DECKS WILL CONVEY. TO SHOW CALL L. A FOR APPT.

5. 2001-09-07
   soldstatus $125,000

   Show marketing remark (177 chars)

   2000 MANUFACTURED HOME ON LARGE PRIVATE NICELY LANDSCAPED LOT. DETACHED 4 CAR GARAGE WITH WORKSHOP. 220 AMP POWER HEAT. 3 DETACHED DECKS WILL CONVEY. TO SHOW CALL L. A FOR APPT.

6. 2001-06-13
   historical 177-char remark

   Show marketing remark (177 chars)

   2000 MANUFACTURED HOME ON LARGE PRIVATE NICELY LANDSCAPED LOT. DETACHED 4 CAR GARAGE WITH WORKSHOP. 220 AMP POWER HEAT. 3 DETACHED DECKS WILL CONVEY. TO SHOW CALL L. A FOR APPT.

7. 2001-02-19
   listed $125,000 192-char remark

   Show marketing remark (177 chars)

   2000 MANUFACTURED HOME ON LARGE PRIVATE NICELY LANDSCAPED LOT. DETACHED 4 CAR GARAGE WITH WORKSHOP. 220 AMP POWER HEAT. 3 DETACHED DECKS WILL CONVEY. TO SHOW CALL L. A FOR APPT.

8. 2001-02-19
   listed $125,000 177-char remark

   Show marketing remark (177 chars)

   2000 MANUFACTURED HOME ON LARGE PRIVATE NICELY LANDSCAPED LOT. DETACHED 4 CAR GARAGE WITH WORKSHOP. 220 AMP POWER HEAT. 3 DETACHED DECKS WILL CONVEY. TO SHOW CALL L. A FOR APPT.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,510 · $293/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,558 · $380/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,047/yr (+$87/mo · 29.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,595
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,525
• − Property taxes: −$3,510
• − Insurance: −$2,142
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,368
• − Management: −$2,368
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable loss: −$5,899
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,416
• After-tax cash flow: $580/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Waterbury

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #47
• US rank: #11502

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A- Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,894

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 56,608 people
• By 2030: 54,731 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 50,227 · -11.3%
• By 2050: 45,893 · -18.9%
• By 2075: 36,818 · -35.0%
• By 2100: 28,143 · -50.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 11% Slovak 8% Romanian 6%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+43.4) · D 70.0% · R 26.6% · Other 3.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.4pp toward D · 2008: 41.0pp · 2024: 43.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+43.4 2020: D+46.1 2016: D+37.0 2012: D+42.2 2008: D+41.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.50%
• Current HPI: 361.6622
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+136.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-03 Pending — PrimeMLS
• 2025-12-03 Listed $295,000 PrimeMLS
• 2001-09-07 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2001-09-07 Sold (MLS) $125,000 PrimeMLS
• 2001-09-07 Sold (MLS) $125,000 PrimeMLS
• 2001-06-13 Delisted — PrimeMLS
• 2001-02-19 Listed $125,000 PrimeMLS
• 2001-02-19 Listed $125,000 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

+21.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $3,510 · +14.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.