5 bd · 1.0 ba ·
2,274 sqft ·
Built 1915
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 52 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,927/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$315
Tax + insurance
−$243
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$405
Net cashflow
$964/mo
Annual
$11,571/yr
Cap rate
25.58%
Cash-on-cash
68.87%
DSCR
4.06
1% rule
3.21%
Cash to close
$16,800
Investor read
This is a 5-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $60k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $964 ($12k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $60k).
It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($58k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $58k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $415 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 84/100 on livability (#107 in PA, #826 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D, crime F.
Harrisburg City SD (urban): math 6% / reading 13% proficiency, ranked #535 of 539 in PA (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Harrisburg Hs (math 24% / reading 10%, grade F, #399 of 437 statewide, top 92%, 1,230 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 82% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: property tax is 4.4% of price; built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.1%/yr); 68 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 540 units permitted in Dauphin County in 2024 (194 in 5+ unit buildings).
6 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (40%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $51k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 25.6% vs local median 6.7% in Harrisburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $1,927/mo this rent would consume 58% of the median local household income ($40k/yr) (locally 1014% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-M6H10E46RDD5KW
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29