2 bd · 4.0 ba ·
2,176 sqft ·
Built 1982
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 27 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,285/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$865
Tax + insurance
−$241
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$480
Net cashflow
$700/mo
Annual
$8,394/yr
Cap rate
11.38%
Cash-on-cash
18.18%
DSCR
1.81
1% rule
1.39%
Cash to close
$46,172
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $700 ($8k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($162k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $162k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Madison County School District (rural): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #3 of 130 in MS (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Madison Crossing Elementary (math 52% / reading 55%, grade C, #49 of 375 statewide, top 13%, 775 students, 100% FRL); Germantown Middle School (math 55% / reading 58%, grade B, #14 of 179 statewide, top 7%, 1,008 students, 100% FRL); Germantown High School (math 34% / reading 41%, grade F, #59 of 197 statewide, top 30%, 1,396 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 29% district-wide (70 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: 362 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 553 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Madison County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 4.9% in Gluckstadt — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-M76VNR1QB9E69H
· Data 9 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29