129 Forbes St

Madison Heights, VA 24572

$199,900F

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · Built 1951 · SingleFamily · Pending · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,130/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$139
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$237
• Net cashflow: $-294/mo
• Annual: $-3,528/yr
• Cap rate: 4.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.30%
• DSCR: 0.72
• 1% rule: 0.57%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-294 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $148k (26.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (43.5% below list).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $113k (43.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#166 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Amherst County Public School District (rural): math 40% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #94 of 131 in VA (top 72%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Madison Heights Elementary (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #900 of 1,108 statewide, top 83%, 418 students, 77% FRL); Monelison Middle (math 25% / reading 59%, grade D-, #295 of 342 statewide, top 87%, 513 students, 77% FRL); Amherst County High (math 57% / reading 81%, grade B, #170 of 319 statewide, top 55%, 1,260 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 42% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 114 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 228 units permitted in Amherst County in 2024 (108 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Amherst County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $160k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.4% in Madison Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.