129 Forbes St · Madison Heights, VA 24572

$199,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1951 0.29 ac lot $175/sqft · at area comps Est $222k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful cape cod on great level fenced in lot at end of cul-de-sac. Long gravel driveway ideal for lots of parking. Three bedrooms and one full bath with upstairs walk up attic that can be finished for additional square footage in future. Septic pumped October 2021

Key facts

• Cape cod style home
• Arched doorways
• Dining area

Tags

• CAPE COD STYLE HOME
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• ARCHED DOORWAYS
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• FIREPLACE
• DINING AREA

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Single family residence; One-story
• Construction: Brick construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Garden; Patio; Storm door(s); Workshop (outbuilding)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Hardwood; Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Fireplace in the living room; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-294 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $148k (26.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (43.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $113k (43.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.4% in Madison Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#166 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Amherst County Public School District (rural): math 40% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #94 of 131 in VA (top 72%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Madison Heights Elementary (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #900 of 1,108 statewide, top 83%, 418 students, 77% FRL); Monelison Middle (math 25% / reading 59%, grade D-, #295 of 342 statewide, top 87%, 513 students, 77% FRL); Amherst County High (math 57% / reading 81%, grade B, #170 of 319 statewide, top 55%, 1,260 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 42% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 114 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 228 units permitted in Amherst County in 2024 (108 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Amherst County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $160k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $113,039 (43.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.30%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 14.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $221,573
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -9.78%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
194 Triple Oak Cir	0.43mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,155 (+1%)	2mo	$296,500	$257	68
117 Wells Rd Rd	0.31mi	2/1.0	1,219 (+7%)	10mo	$187,400	$154	66
233 Mays St	0.30mi	2/1.0	1,263 (+10%)	13mo	$220,000	$174	58
171 Woodvue Dr	0.47mi	2/2.0	1,046 (-9%)	6mo	$225,000	$215	54
299 Seminole Dr	0.56mi	2/1.0	1,100 (-4%)	17mo	$227,000	$206	53
117 Woodys Ln	0.60mi	2/2.0	1,164 (+2%)	15mo	$192,450	$165	53
333 Lakeview Drive Dr	0.65mi	2/2.0	1,064 (-7%)	3mo	$40,000	$38	52
136 Long Pine Dr	0.59mi	2/1.0	1,196 (+4%)	23mo	$235,000	$196	46
157 Phelps Rd	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (+9%)	10mo	$200,000	$160	42
5169 S Amherst Hwy	0.59mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,218 (+6%)	20mo	$20,000	$16	40
305 Lakeview Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,232 (+8%)	14mo	$255,000	$207	38
138 Woodys Ln	0.65mi	3/1.0 (+1)	981 (-14%)	6mo	$189,500	$193	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-51,219
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.24×
• Total profit: $-69,128
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24572

• Home prices YoY: -22.0%
• Active inventory: 114
• Price-to-rent: 14.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,130 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $665/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$237
• Net cashflow: $-294

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,503

Max offer price $147,966

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
156 Cedar Crest Dr Apt 302 Madison Heights, VA	2.0	1.5	980	$995	$1.02	13d	1	0.18mi
4995 S Amherst Hwy Apt 224 Madison Heights, VA	2.0	1.0	982	$795	$0.81	43d	1	0.20mi
115 Town Center Pkwy Apt 1206 Madison Heights, VA	2.0	2.0	1234	$1,500	$1.22	13d	1	0.66mi
115 Town Center Pkwy Unit 1001 Madison Heights, VA	3.0	2.0	1356	$1,650	$1.22	43d	1	0.66mi
131 Town Center Pkwy Unit 2104 Madison Heights, VA	2.0	2.0	1332	$1,600	$1.20	20d	1	0.70mi
197 Hilltop Dr Madison Heights, VA	3.0	1.0	1279	$1,500	$1.17	43d	1	0.80mi
155 Pomona Dr Unit 155 Madison Heights, VA	2.0	1.0	700	$785	$1.12	13d	1	0.96mi
127 Country Village Ln Unit 127-104 Madison Heights, VA	2.0	1.5	930	$900	$0.97	43d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-01
   statusdays on market $199,900 Pending 38 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $199,900 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-05-30
   days on market $199,900 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-04-24
   listed $199,900 Active 825-char remark
5. 2022-08-17
   soldstatus $160,000 Closed 267-char remark

   Show marketing remark (267 chars)

   Beautiful cape cod on great level fenced in lot at end of cul-de-sac. Long gravel driveway ideal for lots of parking. Three bedrooms and one full bath with upstairs walk up attic that can be finished for additional square footage in future. Septic pumped October 2021

6. 2022-07-09
   status Pending 267-char remark

   Show marketing remark (267 chars)

   Beautiful cape cod on great level fenced in lot at end of cul-de-sac. Long gravel driveway ideal for lots of parking. Three bedrooms and one full bath with upstairs walk up attic that can be finished for additional square footage in future. Septic pumped October 2021

7. 2022-07-06
   listed $149,990 Active 267-char remark

   Show marketing remark (267 chars)

   Beautiful cape cod on great level fenced in lot at end of cul-de-sac. Long gravel driveway ideal for lots of parking. Three bedrooms and one full bath with upstairs walk up attic that can be finished for additional square footage in future. Septic pumped October 2021

8. 2017-11-28
   soldstatus $127,400

   Show marketing remark (346 chars)

   Home warranty just added! Handicapped accessible! Well cared for home with beautiful hardwood floors, arched doorways, updated kitchen and bath, formal dining room, living room with fireplace, patio just off kitchen, 2nd level potential for 2nd bath-has 4th bedroom with closet, rear fenced yard, off street parking, carport, workshop in basement

9. 2017-11-28
   soldstatus $127,500

   Show marketing remark (346 chars)

   Home warranty just added! Handicapped accessible! Well cared for home with beautiful hardwood floors, arched doorways, updated kitchen and bath, formal dining room, living room with fireplace, patio just off kitchen, 2nd level potential for 2nd bath-has 4th bedroom with closet, rear fenced yard, off street parking, carport, workshop in basement

10. 2017-05-10
    listed $124,900

    Show marketing remark (346 chars)

    Home warranty just added! Handicapped accessible! Well cared for home with beautiful hardwood floors, arched doorways, updated kitchen and bath, formal dining room, living room with fireplace, patio just off kitchen, 2nd level potential for 2nd bath-has 4th bedroom with closet, rear fenced yard, off street parking, carport, workshop in basement

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $665 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,639 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$974/yr (+$81/mo · 146.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,565
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$665
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,085
• − Management: −$1,085
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$7,283
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,748
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,780/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Amherst County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100210
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -42.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $45,945
• Composite: 43.96/100
• National rank: #2900
• State rank: #94 of 131 in VA

Livability — Madison Heights

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #5166

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Madison Heights, VA
• County: Amherst County · 15,744 people
• City population: 15,744
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• Population (ZIP): 15,744
• Household income: $62,030
• Rent vs Own: 21.8% rent · 78.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 357.0

Population outlook (Amherst County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,790 people
• By 2030: 28,332 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 24,963 · -16.2%
• By 2050: 21,468 · -27.9%
• By 2075: 14,111 · -52.6%
• By 2100: 9,344 · -68.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Black 21% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Amherst

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 31.4% · R 67.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.3pp toward R · 2008: -16.2pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+31.6 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+19.9 2008: R+16.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.26%
• Current HPI: 178.2917
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+60.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Pending — LMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $199,900 LMLS
• 2022-08-17 Sold (MLS) $160,000 LMLS
• 2022-07-09 Pending — LMLS
• 2022-07-06 Listed $149,990 LMLS
• 2017-11-28 Sold (Public Records) $127,500 Public Records
• 2017-11-28 Sold (MLS) $127,400 LMLS
• 2017-05-10 Listed $124,900 LMLS

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $665 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.