498 County Road 445

Tula, MS 38655

$218,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Built 2020 · Manufactured · Active · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,592/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,143
• Tax + insurance: −$163
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $-49/mo
• Annual: $-590/yr
• Cap rate: 6.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.97%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $61,040

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $218k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-49 ($-590/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $209k (4.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (27.0% below list).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($215k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $159k (27.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lafayette County School District (town): math 47% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #29 of 130 in MS (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lafayette Upper Elementary School (math 46% / reading 39%, grade F, #105 of 375 statewide, top 28%, 823 students, 100% FRL); Lafayette Middle School (math 45% / reading 42%, grade D, #46 of 179 statewide, top 25%, 447 students, 99% FRL); Lafayette High School (math 53% / reading 42%, grade D, #28 of 197 statewide, top 14%, 868 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 49% district-wide (50 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 857 active listings in the ZIP; 503 units permitted in Lafayette County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lafayette County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.