498 County Road 445 · Tula, MS 38655

$218,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 18 Days on market

Built 2020 0.92 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This property sits on almost a full acre with trees outlining the property line. There is also a creek that runs on to the property. The home has an open floorplan with an island in kitchen and built-ins in living room. The master bathroom is massive with both stand up shower and tub separate. Also on the property is a shed with lean to attached.

Key facts

• Creek on property
• Open floorplan
• Full acre

Tags

• FULL ACRE
• TREES OUTLINING PROPERTY LINE
• CREEK ON PROPERTY
• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• ISLAND IN KITCHEN
• BUILT-INS IN LIVING ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.92 acres
• Financial info: Financial details not provided
• HOA & community: HOA information not provided

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking
• Security: Security details not provided
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Residential property; No zoning
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Satellite dish; Workshop

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms information not provided
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air
• Interior features: Pantry; Walk-in closets; Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $218k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $326 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (5.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (5.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lafayette County School District (town): math 47% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #29 of 130 in MS (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lafayette Upper Elementary School (math 46% / reading 39%, grade F, #105 of 375 statewide, top 28%, 823 students, 100% FRL); Lafayette Middle School (math 45% / reading 42%, grade D, #46 of 179 statewide, top 25%, 447 students, 99% FRL); Lafayette High School (math 53% / reading 42%, grade D, #28 of 197 statewide, top 14%, 868 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 49% district-wide (50 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 857 active listings in the ZIP; 503 units permitted in Lafayette County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lafayette County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($215k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,698 (5.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.42%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-10,712
• Equity at exit: $32,505

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $33,765
• Equity at exit: $18,849

Cash invested: $61,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38655

• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 857
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,067 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,143
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $870/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
• Net cashflow: $326

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,654

Max offer price $218,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $450	-5% $388	+0% $326	+5% $265	+10% $203
Rent	-10% $163	-5% $245	+0% $326	+5% $408	+10% $490
Rate	-1.0pp $436	-0.5pp $382	base $326	+0.5pp $270	+1.0pp $212

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,500
• Closing costs: $6,540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $218,000 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $218,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $218,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $218,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $218,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $218,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $218,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $218,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $218,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $218,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 386-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $218,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $870 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,722 · $144/mo
• Expected delta: +$852/yr (+$71/mo · 98.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,804
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,211
• − Property taxes: −$870
• − Insurance: −$1,090
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,984
• − Management: −$1,984
• − Depreciation: −$6,342
• Taxable income: $322
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$77
• After-tax cash flow: $3,839/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lafayette County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802370
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $46,476
• Composite: 37.09/100
• National rank: #4498
• State rank: #29 of 130 in MS

Livability — Tula

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Lafayette County · 46,156 people
• Metro: Oxford, MS
• Population (ZIP): 46,156
• Household income: $68,235
• Rent vs Own: 39.6% rent · 60.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1892.0

Population outlook (Lafayette County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,984 people
• By 2030: 74,726 · +11.6%
• By 2040: 90,806 · +35.6%
• By 2050: 108,114 · +61.4%
• By 2075: 151,215 · +125.7%
• By 2100: 187,997 · +180.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 24% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lafayette

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.8) · D 38.3% · R 60.0% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.4pp toward R · 2008: -12.4pp · 2024: -21.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.8 2020: R+12.3 2016: R+14.8 2012: R+15.6 2008: R+12.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -204.86%
• Current HPI: 211.5486
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.85%
• Metro: Oxford, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+16.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $218,000 NCMBR
• 2024-03-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-03-20 Sold (MLS) — NCMBR
• 2024-02-19 Pending — NCMBR
• 2024-02-12 Listed $187,500 NCMBR

Property tax history

+25.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $870 · +121.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.