29636 Tee Shot Dr

San Antonio, FL 33576

$309,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,762 sqft · Built 2006 · SingleFamily · Active · 185 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,168/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,620
• Tax + insurance: −$568
• HOA: −$147
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$455
• Net cashflow: $-623/mo
• Annual: $-7,476/yr
• Cap rate: 3.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.64%
• DSCR: 0.62
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $86,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $309k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-623 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (35.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (29.8% below list).
• It's been on market 185 days — a 12% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $199k (35.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.3%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#454 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Quail Hollow Elementary School (math 45% / reading 49%, grade D-, #1,191 of 2,144 statewide, top 57%, 543 students, 61% FRL); Cypress Creek High School (math 48% / reading 56%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 1,851 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 364 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $36k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 185 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.