14509 Willow Creek Dr

Chalco, NE 68138

$260,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Built 1979 · SingleFamily · Pending · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,072/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax + insurance: −$342
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $-69/mo
• Annual: $-824/yr
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.13%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $72,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-69 ($-824/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $248k (4.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (20.3% below list).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $207k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#46 in NE, #2,335 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Millard Public Schools (urban): math 58% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #13 of 111 in NE (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Neihardt Elementary School (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #319 of 502 statewide, top 68%, 549 students, 36% FRL); Harry Andersen Middle School (math 43% / reading 49%, grade D+, #60 of 128 statewide, top 48%, 911 students, 31% FRL); Millard South High School (math 51% / reading 54%, grade C-, #97 of 261 statewide, top 37%, 2,607 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 34% FRL vs 13% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 47% at this address vs 59% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Millard Public Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 71 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,612 units permitted in Sarpy County in 2024 (364 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sarpy County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.4% in Chalco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.