14509 Willow Creek Dr · Chalco, NE 68138

$260,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1979 7,502 sqft lot $201/sqft · at area comps Est $256k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +6.8/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SSDL

Key facts

• Widened driveway
• Fenced yard
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• ATTACHED COVERED DECK
• FENCED YARD
• WIDENED DRIVEWAY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 covered space, total 1 parking spot)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available on property; Natural gas available
• Home design: Split-entry design; Single-family residence; Not new construction
• Construction: Masonite exterior; Composition roof; Block foundation; Built in 1979
• Exterior features: Covered deck; Chain link and wood fencing; City lot up to 1/4 acre (approximately 75 x 100)

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on main floor; Additional bedrooms on main floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One three-quarter bathroom; One bathroom in basement
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas and electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Gas log fireplace; Walk-out basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-69 ($-824/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $248k (4.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (20.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.4% in Chalco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#46 in NE, #2,335 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Millard Public Schools (urban): math 58% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #13 of 111 in NE (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Neihardt Elementary School (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #319 of 502 statewide, top 68%, 549 students, 36% FRL); Harry Andersen Middle School (math 43% / reading 49%, grade D+, #60 of 128 statewide, top 48%, 911 students, 31% FRL); Millard South High School (math 51% / reading 54%, grade C-, #97 of 261 statewide, top 37%, 2,607 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 34% FRL vs 13% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 47% at this address vs 59% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Millard Public Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 71 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,612 units permitted in Sarpy County in 2024 (364 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarpy County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $207,205 (20.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.13%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $255,754
• List price: $260,000
• Delta: 1.66%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14509 Willow Creek Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,296 (0%)	1mo	$265,000	$204	96
14621 Margo St	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,328 (+2%)	2mo	$290,000	$218	80
14704 Josephine St	0.21mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,317 (+2%)	3mo	$270,000	$205	78
14502 Echo Hills Dr	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,396 (+8%)	3mo	$255,000	$183	75
14906 Willow Creek Dr	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,426 (+10%)	4mo	$251,000	$176	66
14615 Edna St	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,486 (+15%)	1mo	$295,000	$199	64
14908 Echo Hills Dr	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,420 (+10%)	2mo	$261,000	$184	58
14028 Madison Cir	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,368 (+6%)	3mo	$242,500	$177	56
14924 Margo St	0.41mi	3/2.5	1,463 (+13%)	2mo	$310,000	$212	52
14011 Monroe St	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,422 (+10%)	3mo	$304,000	$214	51
6508 S 139th Avenue Circle	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+8%)	2mo	$310,000	$221	49
15303 Papio St	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,422 (+10%)	2mo	$305,000	$214	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.73% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-44,996
• Equity at exit: $38,767

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-38,529
• Equity at exit: $22,480

Cash invested: $72,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Nebraska: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 68138

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 71
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,072 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$234 /mo · $2,805/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $-69

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,159

Max offer price $247,871

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,000
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7106 S 145th St Omaha, NE	4.0	3.0	1720	$2,100	$1.22	14d	1	0.16mi
7561 S 146th St Omaha, NE	3.0	1.0–2.0	1035	$2,418	$2.34	2d	12	0.17mi
13616 Emiline Cir Omaha, NE	3.0	1.5	1296	$2,145	$1.66	3d	1	0.72mi
13530 Josephine St Omaha, NE	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,095	$1.45	14d	1	0.78mi
14735 W Plz Omaha, NE	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	1469	$1,680	$1.14	3d	12	0.90mi
8803 S 143rd St Omaha, NE	3.0	1.5	1300	$1,895	$1.46	2d	1	1.08mi
13906 Jennifer Rd Omaha, NE	4.0	2.0	1611	$2,200	$1.37	3d	1	1.08mi
5723 S 152nd Avenue Cir Omaha, NE	3.0	3.0	1866	$2,100	$1.13	43d	1	1.09mi
15735 Rosewood St Omaha, NE	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1073	$1,550	$1.44	2d	2	1.17mi
13106 Chandler Road Plz Omaha, NE	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	912	$1,589	$1.74	3d	25	1.19mi
9002 David Cir Omaha, NE	3.0	3.0	1534	$1,950	$1.27	2d	1	1.28mi
5380 S 156th Ct Omaha, NE	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1088	$1,815	$1.67	3d	10	1.47mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-02
   status Pending 366-char remark
2. 2026-04-30
   listed $260,000 New 366-char remark
3. 2026-02-09
   historical
4. 2026-02-04
   listed $235,000 New
5. 2018-07-10
   soldstatus $140,000 Sold

   Show marketing remark (4 chars)

   SSDL

6. 2018-07-10
   soldstatus $140,000

   Show marketing remark (4 chars)

   SSDL

7. 2018-05-21
   listed $140,000

   Show marketing remark (4 chars)

   SSDL

8. 2018-05-21
   historical

   Show marketing remark (4 chars)

   SSDL

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NE · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,805 · $234/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,498 · $375/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,693/yr (+$141/mo · 60.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,865
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,564
• − Property taxes: −$2,805
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,989
• − Management: −$1,989
• − Depreciation: −$7,564
• Taxable loss: −$5,347
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,283
• After-tax cash flow: $459/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Millard Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3173740
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $81,146
• Composite: 53.23/100
• National rank: #1500
• State rank: #13 of 111 in NE

Livability — Chalco

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #46
• US rank: #2335

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chalco, NE
• County: Sarpy County · 161,202 people
• Metro: Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA
• Population (ZIP): 11,713
• Household income: $86,007
• Rent vs Own: 33.0% rent · 67.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 303.0

Population outlook (Sarpy County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 211,769 people
• By 2030: 229,365 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 264,122 · +24.7%
• By 2050: 298,087 · +40.8%
• By 2075: 381,667 · +80.2%
• By 2100: 448,180 · +111.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarpy

• 2024 margin: R (+11.7) · D 43.5% · R 55.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: -15.9pp · 2024: -11.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.7 2020: R+11.2 2016: R+21.8 2012: R+23.6 2008: R+15.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.11%
• Current HPI: 250.0183
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.73%
• Metro: Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.68%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NE)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Conglomerate	1	$371B

Price history

+95.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Sold (Public Records) $273,244 Public Records
• 2026-06-02 Sold (MLS) $265,000 GPRMLS
• 2026-05-02 Pending — GPRMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $260,000 GPRMLS
• 2026-02-09 Listing Removed — GPRMLS
• 2026-02-04 Listed $235,000 GPRMLS
• 2018-07-10 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2018-07-10 Sold (MLS) $140,000 GPRMLS
• 2018-05-21 Listing Removed — GPRMLS
• 2018-05-21 Listed $140,000 GPRMLS

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,805 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.