5438 Grand View Dr

Brookshire, TX 77423

$359,500D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,907 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Active · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,393/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,885
• Tax + insurance: −$1,120
• HOA: −$63
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$713
• Net cashflow: $-388/mo
• Annual: $-4,652/yr
• Cap rate: 5.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.62%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $100,660

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $360k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-388 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $291k (19.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $339k (5.6% below list).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($354k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $291k (19.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#960 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Huggins El (math 61% / reading 63%, grade B, #321 of 4,322 statewide, top 8%, 893 students, 23% FRL); Briscoe J H (math 59% / reading 60%, grade B, #166 of 1,662 statewide, top 11%, 1,914 students, 38% FRL); Foster H S (math 64% / reading 74%, grade B, #141 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 2,388 students, 34% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lamar CISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1404 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 56d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 83% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $3,393/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($84k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?