5438 Grand View Dr · Brookshire, TX 77423

$364,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,907 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 350 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 5,623 sqft lot $125/sqft · 31% below area Est $531k · 31% under · waterfront $63/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this stunning 4 bedroom, 2.5 bath home in the desirable Vanbrooke subdivision. Within minutes of I-10, this gorgeous 2 story home features a brick and stone exterior. Greeted by hardwoods throughout the living areas, this open concept floor plan includes a study with French doors, formal dining room with nearby half bath, high ceilings, blinds, updated lighting and wrought iron staircase. Family room with cast stone gas log fireplace has backyard views and opens to island kitchen with breakfast bar, pendant lighting, wood-stained cabinets, granite counters with decorative tile back splash, under cabinet lighting, and walk-in pantry. Primary suite has a private bath w/dual sinks, soaking tub, separate shower and oversized walk-in closet. Upstairs has generous game & media rooms, secondary bedrooms and laundry room. Back Covered patio is great for entertaining. House has a Family Room, Formal Dining, Formal Living, Game room, Living Area, Media, Study, Sprinkler System.

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• High ceilings
• 5,623 sq ft lot

Tags

• BRICK AND STONE EXTERIOR
• OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• STUDY WITH FRENCH DOORS
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• HIGH CEILINGS
• WROUGHT IRON STAIRCASE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $364k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-519 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $272k (25.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $326k (10.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $272k (25.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#960 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Huggins El (math 61% / reading 63%, grade B, #321 of 4,322 statewide, top 8%, 893 students, 23% FRL); Briscoe J H (math 59% / reading 60%, grade B, #166 of 1,662 statewide, top 11%, 1,914 students, 38% FRL); Foster H S (math 64% / reading 74%, grade B, #141 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 2,388 students, 34% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lamar CISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1235 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 43d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,259/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($84k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 350 days — a 12% lower offer ($320k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $36k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $272,283 (25.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 350 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
11. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
12. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
13. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
14. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
15. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.11%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $531,089
• List price: $364,000
• Delta: -31.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
32210 Sunbeam Dr	0.40mi	4/3.0	2,915 (+0%)	2mo	$450,990	$155	77
32311 Sunbeam Dr	0.44mi	4/3.0	2,915 (+0%)	2mo	$419,990	$144	75
5218 Windy Plantation Dr	0.37mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,836 (-2%)	2mo	$374,999	$132	72
5707 Sunland Trl	0.37mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,867 (-1%)	2mo	$410,990	$143	71
32330 Sunbeam Dr	0.46mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,921 (+0%)	2mo	$399,999	$137	70
32734 Harvest Valley Dr	0.43mi	4/4.5	2,950 (+2%)	3mo	$325,000	$110	67
32714 Oak Heights Ln	0.35mi	4/3.0	2,636 (-9%)	1mo	$338,999	$129	66
5831 Sunkissed Dr	0.54mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,867 (-1%)	1mo	$403,990	$141	65
32207 Sunbeam Dr	0.42mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,712 (-7%)	2mo	$384,990	$142	61
32911 Chase William Dr	0.44mi	4/3.5	3,216 (+11%)	1mo	$461,995	$144	57
32223 Sunbeam Dr	0.42mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,697 (-7%)	2mo	$379,990	$141	56
32127 Morning Luster Ct	0.54mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,677 (-8%)	2mo	$389,990	$146	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-101,197
• Equity at exit: $54,274

10-year hold

• IRR: -61.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.63×
• Total profit: $-165,967
• Equity at exit: $31,472

Cash invested: $101,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 126 active · 18 under contract
• Months of supply: 23.6 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $475,945 ($174/sqft)
• Median days on market: 219 d
• This list price: 10% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +4.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77423

• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1235
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,259 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,909
• Tax from tax record: −$970 /mo · $11,644/yr
• Insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$684
• Net cashflow: $-519

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,916

Max offer price $272,283

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-313	-5% $-416	+0% $-519	+5% $-622	+10% $-725
Rent	-10% $-777	-5% $-648	+0% $-519	+5% $-390	+10% $-262
Rate	-1.0pp $-336	-0.5pp $-427	base $-519	+0.5pp $-614	+1.0pp $-709

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $91,000
• Closing costs: $10,920
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5462 Grand View Dr Unit 1568482P Pattison, TX	5.0	3.0	2992	$4,159	$1.39	0d	1	0.08mi
32311 Melbrooke Dr Brookshire, TX	3.0	2.5	2434	$2,295	$0.94	8d	1	0.12mi
5222 Wyatt James Ln Brookshire, TX	4.0	2.5	2487	$3,250	$1.31	61d	1	0.39mi
33002 Franklin Brooks Dr Pattison, TX	4.0	3.5	3255	$4,385	$1.35	0d	1	0.52mi
32511 Midsummer Dr Fulshear, TX	4.0	2.5	2342	$2,500	$1.07	12d	1	0.55mi
32503 Midsummer Dr Fulshear, TX	4.0	2.5	2342	$2,500	$1.07	28d	1	0.55mi
31215 Hastings Creek Ln Fulshear, TX	4.0	3.5	3399	$4,999	$1.47	42d	1	1.25mi
31043 Vintage Creek Ln Fulshear, TX	4.0	3.5	2800	$3,300	$1.18	71d	1	1.37mi
7302 New Pecan Dr Fulshear, TX	4.0	4.0	2844	$3,299	$1.16	93d	1	1.38mi
31123 Brightwell Bnd Fulshear, TX	4.0	3.0	2400	$2,400	$1.00	62d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail $63/mo · $756/yr

• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $364,000 Active 350 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $364,000 Active 348 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $364,000 Active 347 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $364,000 Active 346 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $364,000 Active 345 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $364,000 Active 342 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $364,000 Active 340 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $364,000 Active 339 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $364,000 Active 337 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $364,000 Active 335 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $364,000 Active 334 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $364,000 Active 333 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $364,000 Active 332 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $364,000 Active 331 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $364,000 Active 329 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $364,000 Active 328 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $364,000 Active 327 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $364,000 Active 326 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $364,000 Active 325 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $364,000 Active 324 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $364,000 Active 323 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $364,000 Active 322 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $364,000 Active 321 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $364,000 Active 320 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $364,000 Active 318 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $364,000 Active 317 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $364,000 Active 316 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $364,000 Active 315 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $364,000 Active 314 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $364,000 Active 313 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $364,000 Active 312 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $364,000 Active 311 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $364,000 Active 310 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $364,000 Active 309 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $364,000 Active 308 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $364,000 Active 307 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $364,000 Active 305 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $364,000 Active 303 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $364,000 Active 302 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $364,000 Active 299 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $364,000 Active 298 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $364,000 Active 297 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $364,000 Active 296 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $364,000 Active 294 DOM
45. 2026-06-10
    days on market $364,000 Active 290 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $364,000 Active 289 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $364,000 Active 288 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $364,000 Active 285 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $364,000 Active 284 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $364,000 Active 283 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $11,644 · $970/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,644 · $970/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,108
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,390
• − Property taxes: −$11,644
• − Insurance: −$1,820
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,129
• − Management: −$3,129
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$10,589
• Taxable loss: −$12,347
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,963
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,267/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $14,535–$43,605 screening

This well-maintained, 2-story home in the Vanbrooke subdivision features a brick and stone exterior, hardwood floors, and updated lighting. It is in good condition with minor cosmetic improvements needed for optimal curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Replace blinds with energy-efficient window treatments — Improves energy efficiency and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

C Composite school gradezoned avg 63/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Huggins El B TX #321/4,322 Nat'l #6,217/41,679 Middle Dean Leaman J H School B TX #206/1,662 Nat'l #2,146/14,009 High Foster H S B TX #141/1,632 Nat'l #2,354/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Brookshire

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #960
• US rank: #17059

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Waller County · 1,004,526 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,767
• Household income: $84,490
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% White 41% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.28%
• Current HPI: 204.8709
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-19.7% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $373,530 HARMLS
• 2025-11-17 Price Changed $379,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-20 Price Changed $384,900 HARMLS
• 2025-08-23 Listed $399,700 HARMLS
• 2025-06-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-02-13 Price Changed $414,897 HARMLS
• 2025-02-11 Price Changed $395,000 HARMLS
• 2025-02-06 Price Changed $399,000 HARMLS
• 2025-02-03 Price Changed $408,897 HARMLS
• 2025-01-24 Price Changed $414,897 HARMLS
• 2025-01-16 Price Changed $419,897 HARMLS
• 2025-01-02 Price Changed $425,000 HARMLS
• 2024-12-12 Price Changed $429,897 HARMLS
• 2024-12-04 Listed $435,000 HARMLS
• 2024-05-14 Listed $465,000 HARMLS
• 2024-05-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS

Property tax history

+92.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $11,644 · -5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.