430 E 4th St #17

Craig, CO 81625

$32,000B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 980 sqft · Built 1980 · Manufactured · Active · 105 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $944/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$168
• Tax + insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$198
• Net cashflow: $458/mo
• Annual: $5,500/yr
• Cap rate: 25.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 70.28%
• DSCR: 4.13
• 1% rule: 2.95%
• Cash to close: $8,960

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $32k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $458 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($944 rent vs $32k).
• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($29k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $29k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $221 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $960 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#160 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: employment C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Moffat County School District Re: No. 1 (town): math 22% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #53 of 86 in CO (top 62%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Sandrock Elementary (math 5% / reading 17%, grade F, #879 of 966 statewide, top 94%, 325 students, 54% FRL); Craig Middle School (math 20% / reading 27%, grade F, #182 of 270 statewide, top 68%, 464 students, 42% FRL); Moffat County High School (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #220 of 381 statewide, top 59%, 560 students, 35% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 189 active listings in the ZIP; 18 units permitted in Moffat County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Moffat County population projected at -41% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 26.0% vs local median 3.2% in Craig — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.