430 E 4th St #17 · Craig, CO 81625

$32,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured public records · 105 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1980

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great investment opportunity or affordable starter home! This 3-bedroom 1.25 bath home offers plenty of space and potential for the right buyer. Located on a rented lot, with water, sewer, and trash included in lot rent.

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 1980
• Listed 104 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking
• Home design: HUD model; Located in the Craig subdivision; Directions: East on 4th Street, right on Lincoln Street to Lot 17
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Not new construction

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Refrigerator; Range; Dishwasher
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Unfurnished; Average condition

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $32k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $681 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $32k).
• Recommended offer: $29k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 34.3% vs local median 3.2% in Craig — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#160 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: employment C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Moffat County School District Re: No. 1 (town): math 22% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #53 of 86 in CO (top 62%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Sandrock Elementary (math 5% / reading 17%, grade F, #879 of 966 statewide, top 94%, 325 students, 54% FRL); Craig Middle School (math 20% / reading 27%, grade F, #182 of 270 statewide, top 68%, 464 students, 42% FRL); Moffat County High School (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #220 of 381 statewide, top 59%, 560 students, 35% FRL).
• Market conditions: 189 active listings in the ZIP; 18 units permitted in Moffat County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $221 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $960 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Moffat County population projected at -41% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($29k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $29,120 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.83% ✓
• Cap rate: 34.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 100.12%
• DSCR: 5.45
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 92.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.27×
• Total profit: $38,255
• Equity at exit: $4,771

10-year hold

• IRR: 94.9%
• Equity multiple: 10.98×
• Total profit: $89,413
• Equity at exit: $2,767

Cash invested: $8,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 81625

• Home prices YoY: -25.2%
• Active inventory: 189
• Price-to-rent: 2.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,226 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$168
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$40 /mo · $480/yr
• Insurance: −$13
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $681

Break-even live

Break-even rent $364

Max offer price $32,000

Occupancy floor 39%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $703	-5% $692	+0% $681	+5% $670	+10% $659
Rent	-10% $584	-5% $633	+0% $681	+5% $730	+10% $778
Rate	-1.0pp $697	-0.5pp $689	base $681	+0.5pp $673	+1.0pp $664

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,000
• Closing costs: $960
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $32,000 Active 105 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $32,000 Active 102 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $32,000 Active 101 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $32,000 Active 100 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $32,000 Active 99 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $32,000 Active 98 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $32,000 Active 96 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $32,000 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $32,000 Active 92 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $32,000 Active 91 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $32,000 Active 90 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $32,000 Active 87 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $32,000 Active 86 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $32,000 Active 85 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    price $32,000 Active 84 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $38,000 Active 84 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $38,000 Active 83 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $38,000 Active 82 DOM
19. 2026-03-09
    listed $38,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 4 d/yr ≥88°F today · 10 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,715
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,792
• − Property taxes: −$480
• − Insurance: −$957
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,177
• − Management: −$1,177
• − Depreciation: −$931
• Taxable income: $8,200
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,968
• After-tax cash flow: $6,206/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Moffat County School District Re: No. 1
• NCES district ID: 0805730
• Math proficiency: 22% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,633
• Composite: 25.07/100
• National rank: #7539
• State rank: #53 of 86 in CO

Livability — Craig

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #160
• US rank: #12817

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime D Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Craig, CO
• Population (ZIP): 12,242

Population outlook (Moffat County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,901 people
• By 2030: 9,922 · -9.0%
• By 2040: 8,081 · -25.9%
• By 2050: 6,460 · -40.7%
• By 2075: 3,896 · -64.3%
• By 2100: 2,620 · -76.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Moffat

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.8) · D 17.5% · R 80.3% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.4pp toward R · 2008: -43.5pp · 2024: -62.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.8 2020: R+63.6 2016: R+67.9 2012: R+55.0 2008: R+43.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.11%
• Current HPI: 284.444
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-09 Listed $38,000 AGMLS

Property tax history

-1.3%/yr

Latest (2021): $49 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.